农产品出口与农民增收关系的实证研究

【作者】 陈诗军；

【导师】 罗敏；

【作者基本信息】 贵州大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 硕士

【副题名】以浙江、贵州为例

【摘要】 随着全球化进程加快,我国农业逐步融入世界经济体系,农民收入与农产品国际贸易的关系日益密切;农民收入问题是解决我国“三农”问题,实现全面小康的核心问题。因此,研究农产品出口与农民收入增加的关系,对我国尤其对我国农村而言具有极其重要的意义。通过对已有文献的考察发现,虽然研究成果丰富,但对于国内不同区域的对比研究相对薄弱,有进一步研究的必要。本研究在对相关文献进行回顾和评论的基础上,对农产品出口与农民收入的一般关系进行了较为深入分析,得出了一般性结论:农产品出口促进农民增收。为了检验这个结论,考虑到我国不同地区间(特别是东西部)的经济发展,农村发展,农产品出口以及农民收入等方面的差异,从东部地区中抽取浙江为代表,从西部地区中抽取贵州为代表,根据计量经济学的协整理论和Granger因果检验原理,利用两省1985-2005年数据,检验了农产品出口与农民增收关系在全国层面的一般结论在不同区域的适用性。检验发现,无论是浙江还是贵州农产品出口都明显促进农民增收,同时,还发现在浙江,农民收入还是促进农产品出口额增加的因素之一,贵州农民收入对农产品出口额增加的影响并不明显。本研究对此现象产生的原因作了简要分析。理论研究和实证检验为对策研究打下了基础,本研究在此基础上,结合浙江、贵州的农产品出口发展现状,对两地促进农产品出口提出了建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because the globalization progress speeds,agriculture in our country integrates world economic system gradually,the relationship between agricultural product international trade and the farmer income is increasingly close;the farmer income is the key to resolve "three agricultures" problem in our country and studying the relation of agricultural product export and the farmer income augmentative,is meaningful.In the past time,there were a lot of experts had researched it and studying result is rich,but the research about different district isn’t enough,there is the necessity of further research.This research based on the related cultural heritage,further study on to the general relation of the agricultural product export and the farmer income and get general conclusion:The agricultural product export promotes the farmer income increase.In order to examine this conclusion,based on different situation of different zone in our country,especially the differences between eastern and western,sample Zhejiang from region in the east in order to represent,sample Guizhou from region in the west in order to represent,according to calculate economics to help sorting theory and Granger cause and effect to examine principle,make use of the data of this two province (1985-2005),examined the applicability of the national level general conclusion in different district.The examination discovers that agricultural product export can promote the farmer income increase in Zhejiang and Guizhou,in the meantime,discovers in Zhejiang the farmer income promotes the agricultural product export also,but in Guizhou,farmer’s income’s augmentative to agricultural product export influence in the economy not obvious.This research made the analysis about reasons of the synopsis to this phenomenon output.The theory studies and the substantial evidence examination is the foundation of the counter plan research,this research combined agricultural product export development present condition in Zhejiang and in Guizhou on this foundation,put forward suggestions to promote the agricultural product export.更多还原