【作者】 王伟；

【导师】 张俊飚；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 实施可持续发展战略已经成为我国重要的基本国策。改革开放以来,湖北省经济社会的快速发展改善了人们的生活水平,但也伴随着资源大量消耗和环境的恶化。因此,对湖北省进行可持续发展状况定量评估具有现实的指导意义。本文在回顾了可持续发展产生的背景和内涵的基础上,介绍了由生态经济学家William Rees(1992)提出并由其博士生Mathis Wakernagel(1996)完善的生态足迹理论,并结合湖北省相关统计数据,计算了湖北省1995-2006年的生态足迹。并在此基础上采用万元GDP生态足迹、生态压力指数、生态足迹多样性指数及发展能力等相关指标进一步对湖北省生态经济发展能力进行分析,从而测度湖北省可持续发展状况。研究结果表明:湖北省1995-2006年人均生态足迹需求整体上处于上升的趋势,从1995年的1.7538gha/cap增加到2006年的2.3356gha/cap,12年内增加了33.17%。从生态足迹构成上来看,化石能源土地人均生态足迹最大,占总需求的40%左右,且有继续增大的趋势。其次分别为水域、耕地、草地、建设用地和林地。湖北省1995-2006年人均生态承载力总体上呈现下降的趋势。从1995年的0.8218gha/cap减少到2006年的0.7047gha/cap,12年内减少了14.25%。从生态承载力构成来看,耕地人均生态承载力最大,所占比重最大,为60%左右,且有继续增大的趋势。其次分别为林地、建设用地、草地和水域。研究时段内,人均生态赤字逐年扩大,由1995年的0.9276gha/cap增加到2006年的1.6309gha/cap,增长了75.82%。表明湖北省一直处于生态赤字状态,即不可持续发展状态,而且这种趋势有可能继续延伸。万元GDP生态足迹是逐年下降的,但提高资源利用效益仍然任重道远。湖北省生态压力指数的逐年增加成为制约湖北省经济协调、可持续发展的重要问题。提高生态足迹多样性是今后湖北经济社会发展中所着重解决的问题;发展能力总体上虽然是在逐年提高的,但却是以生态足迹的增加为代价的。通过上述的计算与分析,针对湖北省经济发展中存在的问题,提出以下建议:控制人口数量,提高人口素质,转变人们消费方式,增强人们可持续发展意识;优化能源生产结构;科学规划土地利用,提高土地资源利用效率;优化产业结构,大力发展循环经济。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sustainable development has become one important basic national policy in our country.Since the reform and opening,the fast developed society and econonmy has improved human living.However,the eco-environment is being deteriorated constantly.So how to valuate the state of sustainable development quantitively is very meaningful for Hubei.The paper first retrospects the background and meaning of sustainable development,then introduces the concept of ecological footprint produced by William and Wackernagel,and calculates the ecological footprint of Hubei province from the year 1995 to 2006 on the basis of statistical data.It also calculates the ecological footprint per ten thousands yuan GDP,the ecological pressure index,diversity and development ability of ecological footprint,ere to measure the degree of sustainable development.The per capita ecological footprint has increased from 1.7538gha/cap in 1995 to 2.3356gha/cap in 2006,by rising 33.17%.However,the fossil energy land has the the biggest proportions.The per capita ecological capacity has decreased from 0.8218gha/cap in 1995 to 0.7047gha/cap in 2006,by decreasing 14.25%.While,the farm land has the the biggest proportionsThe ecological deficit has increased steadily from 0.9276gha/cap in 1995 to 1.6309gha/cap in 2006,by rising 75.82%.Namely,it isn’t in state of sustainable development,and maybe the trend of ecological deficit will keep for some years.The ecological footprint per ten thousands yuan GDP of Hubei province has been decreasing,but there is also a long hard way to improving resource utilization ratio.The increasing ecological pressure index has prevented the economy development.Enhancing the diversity of ecological footprint is a key problem for Hubei province to achieve sustainable development.Development ability of ecological footprint has been increasing, but at the cost of increasing ecological footprint.Through the previous analysis,some suggestions are put forward as followings: strictly controlling the amount of population and improving the humanquality,changing people’s consume concept,enhancing people’s consciousness of sustainable development; decreasing in fossil energy resources to consume,taking every effert to protect waters and pasture land;strengthening the science plan and enhancing land use efficiency; coordinating industry structure,calling for circulated economy.更多还原