【作者】 潘珍妮；

【导师】 尚天成；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 合同能源管理是实现企业节能改造的一种有效的模式。应用合同能源管理模式实施节能改造项目的经验表明,在对项目风险和效益进行合理评价的基础上,合同能源管理模式在我国有很大的发展空间。在对节能改造项目进行评价时,国内外学者和大部分节能服务公司采用的都是净现值等传统的评价方法,这样无法客观评价项目中存在的管理弹性和战略价值,从而不能真正反映出项目的实际价值。本文针对净现值评价方法的缺陷,将期权理论引入合同能源管理项目评价中,并应用B-S模型进行计算,为不确定环境条件下合同能源管理项目的投资评价提供了一个新的思路和定量分析方法。本论文首先分析了合同能源管理项目的投资运行过程及特点,指出项目实施中存在的问题及不确定性,但是这种不确定性亦是一个金融机会。净现值方法把不确定性看作是风险,忽视了其中蕴含的巨大价值,而期权定价方法正是考虑了这种管理的灵活性和投资中的沉没成本。然后阐明了合同能源管理项目中存在的期权特性,提出了项目评价中的期权定量分析方法,建立了合同能源管理项目的B-S评价模型,并对DY钢厂加热炉节能改造项目用净现值方法和B-S模型进行评价比较。从应用的角度看,B-S模型并没有完全抛弃净现值分析方法,而是在此基础上对净现值法的一个有益的补充和修正。由于B-S评价模型考虑到了投资期权的价值,对项目中蕴藏的投资机会价值的挖掘,更真实的反映了项目的价值,更加适用于不确定性的项目评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy performance contracting is an effective mode which can make the enterprises realize energy saving transformation. The practical experience of applying this mode to implement the energy saving project shows that there is a large development space in China on the base of evaluating the project risk and benefit reasonably.The scholars domestic and international, as well as the most energy management companies, use the traditional evaluating methods such as net present value, etc, which is unable to evaluate objectively the management elastic and strategic value existing in projects while evaluating the energy saving projects, thus the real value of projects can’t be reflected. This paper introduces the option theory to the evaluation of energy performance contracting project against the defect of net present value method, and uses B-S model to calculate its value. It provides a new thinking and quantitative analyzing method for the investment of the energy performance contracting project under the uncertain environment.This paper analyzes the investment processes and characteristics of the energy performance contracting project firstly, and points out the problems and uncertainty existing in the project implementation. The traditional methods regard uncertainty as a risk, and have ignored the enormous value contained in them, while the real option method considers the management flexibility and the sinking cost of investment. Then the paper expounds the characteristics of real option existing in the energy performance contracting project, and proposes the quantitative analyzing method of real option in project evaluation, and B-S evaluation model is set up, finally compares the B-S model with net present value method for heating furnace energy saving transformation project of DY steel factory. From the view of application, B-S model has not given up the analyzing method of net present value, reversely is a beneficial supplementary and modification of it. B-S model has considered the investment option value, so its excavating to the investment chance value reflects the real value of the project, and it is suitable for the uncertain evaluation of projects.更多还原