【作者】 刘欣；

【导师】 王雪青；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 城市轨道交通的发展直接影响城市的土地利用形态、布局与规模。20世纪70年代以来,国际上轨道交通对城市住宅价值的影响研究一直是相关领域的前沿课题之一。本文在总结国内外相关领域研究成果的基础上,从利弊两个角度辩证地分析了轨道交通对住宅价值的影响机理,选定Hedonic模型,探讨轨道交通对周边住宅价值的空间效应和时间效应,重点是研究轨道交通周边住宅特征价值的定量计算分析模型,构建带有交叉项的Hedonic模型分析不同细分市场下的空间效应以及轨道交通通车的时间效应。然后以天津城市轨道交通建设为背景,将视角集中在天津地铁1号线,以之为实证分析的对象,搜集周边49个住宅项目相关数据,探讨轨道交通对周边住宅价值的影响。对空间效应的研究结果表明,天津地铁1号线站点整体上影响半径为站点周边0.8~1.0km,距离站点0.3km半径以内、0.3~0.5 km、0.5~0.8 km、0.8~1.0km比1号线影响半径外区域的住宅价值分别高出559元/m2、292元/m2、150元/m2、97元/m2;0.8~1.0 km影响半径内平均增值幅度为6.2%;0.5~0.8km半径区域内增值幅度明显,平均增幅为7.7%;增值影响最大的是距离地铁站点0.3km以内的住宅,增值幅度达9.44%。对于时间效应,除去其他住宅特征以及2004~2007年的住宅市场供求关系变化的影响,地铁通车对于影响半径内的住宅价值具有明显的提升作用。住宅市场对1号线的“通车”这个标志性的事件存在良好的反应。不同细分市场的空间效应研究表明,在地铁站点影响半径内,距离CBD的距离越远,地铁站点带来的价值就越大;距离CBD近的区域,轨道交通的贡献度较低。而且随着邻里平均收入(住宅消费支出)的增加,住宅档次的提高,与地铁站点的距离使住宅价格的增值幅度呈下降趋势,低收入邻里比高收入邻里更加愿意为住在距离地铁站较近的地方支付较高的价格。在此基础之上,本文根据研究成果,提出轨道交通应实施与房地产联合开发的策略,构建以公共交通为导向的城市发展模式等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban Rapid Rail Transit impacts on the development of urban land use patterns, layout and scale directly. From 1970s, International research on the effect of Rapid Rail Transit on the residential value has been related fields one of the topics at the forefront. Based on the summary of relevant research fields, from the perspective of the pros and cons of two dialectical analysis of the mechanism of the Rapid Rail Transit on the residential value, Hedonic model is selected to explore the spacial and time effects on the surrounding residential value. Research is focused on building quantitative analysis model with cross-term in Hedonic model to analyse different segments of the market. It focuses in perspective Tianjin Metro Line 1 to serve as an empirical analysis of the object, gathering related data of around 49 residential projects. The research results of spacial effect show that Tianjin Metro Line 1 overall impact on the site radius of the site surrounding 0.8~1.0km. The residential value within 0.3km radius from the site, 0.3~0.5 km, 0.5~0.8 km, 0.8~1.0km is higher than than the residential value outside the region of the 1st line radius of influence as 559 yuan/m2, 292 yuan/m2, 150 yuan/m2, 97 yuan/m2. Within the average range of 0.8~1.0km and 0.5~0.8km radius of influence the value-added is 6.2% and 7.7%. The greatest impact value is the residential within 0.3km from the subway site, with the value-added range of 9.44%. For the time effect, removing other residential features and the residential market supply and demand change during 2004~2007, the opening of Tianjin Metro Line 1 improved the the residential value in the radius of influence obviously. Residential market has a good response to“opening”event of Metro Line 1. Different segments of the market show diffetent spacial effect, the farther distance from the CBD, the greater value of metro site. As increaseing average neighborhood income (domestic spending), and the improvement of the residential grade, the effect of subway stations to the value-added of residential prices is downward trend, and low-income neighborhood are more willing to live in close distance from the subway station where may pay higher prices. On basis of the research, the implementation of joint development strategy of Rapid Rail Transit and Real Estate, as well as a public Transport-Oriented Development patterns in urdan construction is presented.更多还原