【作者】 杨琳；

【导师】 陈赟；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 高速公路在现代运输中占有极其重要的地位,成为衡量一个国家和地区经济发展水平和现代化程度的重要标志。随着高速公路运营的内外环境和组织形式的多样性、复杂性演变趋势,一直在高速公路运营的客观风险事件中隐含的主体行为风险越来越突出,甚至成为主导风险形式,对主体行为风险的研究已成为高速公路运营风险管理理论研究的前沿问题。本文首先在分析国内外相关研究的基础上,对高速公路运营中的主体行为风险的概念、特征和分类进行了分析;继而从利益冲突、信息不完备以及风险效应与风险决策等理论着手,详细分析论述了高速公路运营过程中主体行为风险的形成机理;并在此基础上,构建了一个较完整科学的评价高速公路运营过程中主体行为风险的指标体系,根据主体行为风险的特点,选择了相应的、可以衡量风险大小的模糊综合评价模型;随后结合湖南省潭邵高速公路企业运营实际,进行了实例分析,验证了本文提出的高速公路运营过程中主体行为风险的评价内容、指标体系和模型的可行性和有效性;最后结合前面的理论分析,提出了一些切实可行的,可以有效降低高速公路运营过程中主体行为风险的建议、方法与对策。文章对高速公路运营过程中的主体行为风险的形成机理、风险评价等问题的研究和探讨,丰富和完善了高速公路运营风险管理的理论,对提高我国高速公路运营效益,增强高速公路抵御风险的能力,促进高速公路运营管理体制的改革都具有很强的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The modern highway transportation has occupies an extremely important position, a measure of a country and regional levels of economic development and an important symbol of modernization. With the highway operator’s internal and external environment and the diversity of organizations, the complexity of the evolving trend, the highway operator has been the objective risk implicit in the event of the main risks of an increasingly prominent, or even become dominant form of risk, the risk to the principal act Research has become a highway operators of risk management theory on the forefront of the issue.On the basis of the highway operator in the course of an analysis of the main defined, this thesis has put into the analysis of relevant domestic and international, and given the highway operator in the process of the main risks of the definition of further from the conflict of interest, incomplete information and Risk and the risk of decision-making theory proceed, a detailed analysis on the main highway operator in the course of the formation mechanism of risk, and on this basis, it builds a more complete and scientific evaluation of the process of the main highway operator of the risk index system. According to the main risks of the characteristics of the corresponding choice, you can measure the size of fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model followed with Lake in Hunan Province Shao highway enterprise operations, carry out an example of this thesis which verified in the course of the highway operator. At last, this thesis made a number of practical proposals, methods and countermeasures which can effectively reduce the highway operator in the main risks of the evaluation of risks, the indicator system and model of the feasibility and effectiveness of the previous theoretical analysis,The thesis explores the formation mechanism of risk assessment and other issues,on the highway operator in the process of the main risk. it also enriches the highway operator risk management theory and improves the operating efficiency of Chinese expressways to resist risks the ability. It has a strong practical significance to promote highway operation and management system reform .更多还原