【作者】 李雪；

【导师】 张广海；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 旅游管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着工业化和城市化进程的加快,城市群已成为我国地区经济社会发展的重要地域组织形式。对于具有高度产业关联性和区域开放性的旅游业,城市群已经成为区域旅游业的重要空间载体。本文选取山东半岛城市群为研究对象,针对目前旅游竞争力研究中存在的不足,从城市群整体及其内部单体城市两个角度,尝试构建旅游竞争力评价指标体系和系统动力学(System Dynamics)动态仿真模型,对该区竞争力变化趋势进行预测分析,以期丰富旅游竞争力研究方法与分析思路。论文采用的研究方法主要有层次分析法、回归分析法、聚类分析法和系统动力学等定量分析方法。论文主要成果与结论如下:(1)针对城市群地域单元整体,从旅游业发展动力、旅游业发展水平、旅游影响、旅游经济联系4个方面构建了旅游竞争力评价指标体系,具体包括15个二级指标、60个三级指标;针对城市群内部单体城市,考虑到其对城市群区域整体旅游业发展的贡献和影响不同,又增加单体城市区域旅游贡献度这一方面,具体增加了2个三级指标,用以反映城市群内部单体城市与孤立城市之间旅游竞争力研究的区别。(2)在构建山东半岛城市群单体城市和城市群整体的旅游竞争力评价指标体系的基础上,运用层次分析法确定了各指标权重;根据人口、国土规模的相似性及旅游业发展水平的差距,运用聚类分析方法,分别选择杭州市和珠三角地区作为该区单体城市和城市群整体的比对基准,用以旅游竞争力评价指标量化和比较分析;将竞争力评价方法与SD方法相结合,从城市群单体城市和城市群整体2个角度构建了动态仿真模型,用以预测该区旅游竞争力的变化趋势。(3)到2020年,山东半岛城市群整体和单体城市的旅游竞争力基本接近同期各自比对基准的水平,在该区旅游竞争力的一级评价指标中,旅游业发展水平竞争力相对较高;旅游影响和旅游经济联系竞争力居中;旅游业发展动力和不同等级城市区域旅游贡献度竞争力相对较低。(4)从该区旅游竞争力的变化趋势看:单体城市旅游竞争力在未来15年内均呈现稳中有升的变化趋势,而且城市之间的相对差距比较明显,到仿真期末,8城市旅游竞争力排名依次为:青岛、济南、烟台、日照、威海、东营、淄博、潍坊。从城市群整体来看,旅游竞争力呈现较为平缓的直线型或近似指数型增长趋势,与单体城市相比,其旅游竞争力的提升幅度较大,这表明城市群旅游一体化及其区域整合是提升山东半岛城市群旅游竞争力的重要措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the pace of industrialization and urbanization speeding up, urban agglomeration has become an important form of organization in the regional economic and social development of our country. And Tourism, an industry with high dependence and regional opening property, has taken urban agglomeration as an important spatial carrier.In view of the present insufficiency, the paper attempts to establish an index system and dynamic simulation model to rich the research methods and analysis thinking of tourism competitiveness research from the point of the whole urban agglomeration and its internal monomer city. Then the paper takes the Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration as the research target and analyzes the tendency of tourism competitiveness of this region.The research methods of this paper mainly focus on Analytic Hierarchy Process, Regression Analysis Method, Cluster Analysis Method and System Dynamics, etc. The main achievements and conclusions are as follows:(1)Taking urban agglomeration as an entire regional unit, the paper establishes the appraisal index system of tourism competitiveness from 4 aspects, the drive force of tourism, the tourism development level, the effects of tourism and the tourism economic relationship, concretely including 15 second grade index and 60 third grade index; in view of the internal monomer city, considering the difference of their contribution to the tourism development of the whole region, the paper increases another aspect to evaluate the contribution of different cites and reflect the difference between tourism competitiveness research on an isolated city and on that within an urban agglomeration, which specifically includes 2 third grade index.(2)On the basis of the establishment of tourism competitiveness appraisal index system, the paper determines the weight of each index by utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process; then according to the similarity in population and land scale as well as the disparity in tourism development level, the paper separately chooses Hangzhou and the Pearl River Delta as the comparative datum by means of Cluster Analysis Method, to quantify the appraisal index and making further analysis; at last, combining the evaluating methods and SD method, the author structures the dynamic model from the point of the entire urban agglomeration and its internal monomer city to forecast the developing trend of tourism competitiveness in this area.(3)By the year of 2020, tourism competitiveness of the whole Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration and its single cities both basically approach the level of their respectively comparative datum at that time. Among the first grade index, the competitiveness of tourism development level is comparatively high, while that of the tourism drive force and regional tourism contribution of cities belonging to different ranks relatively low, and that of tourism effects and economic relationship are between those above two parties.(4)From the view of the changing tendency, the tourism competitiveness of the monomer city will maintain an approximately steady developing trend in the following 15 years, and the disparity of competitiveness among different cities are comparatively obvious. By the end of the simulation period, the rank of these 8 cities in Shandong peninsula is as follows: Qingdao, Jinan, Yantai, Rizhao, Weihai, Dongying, Zibo, Weifang. As far as the entire urban agglomeration is concerned, the tourism competitiveness presents a smooth straight line or an approximate index growth tendency, and the promotion scope is higher than that of the monomer city in this area, which demonstrates that tourism integration and regional conformity are import measures to promote the tourism competitiveness of Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration.更多还原