【作者】 吴桂平；

【导师】 曾永年；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 地图制图学与地理信息工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)是当前研究全球变化的重要内容,而区域土地利用变化模拟和分析成为LUCC研究的核心内容之一。区域土地利用变化是一个极其复杂的地理过程,建立土地利用变化模型是深入了解区域土地利用变化成因、过程,预测未来发展变化趋势的重要手段,也是土地利用/土地覆盖变化及全球变化研究的主要方法。本文主要针对目前国际上广泛使用的CLUE-S土地利用变化模型,通过在传统Logistic回归模型中引入空间白相关变量,对CLUE-S模型的空间分析模块进行了改进。同时以张家界市永定区为例,运用改进的CLUE-S模型对区域土地利用变化进行了模拟和分析。研究结果说明了基于AutoLogistic方法(改进的Logistic方法)的土地利用变化的相关性建模在一定意义上是合理的。同时研究结果也可以为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。论文的主要研究工作如下:(1)土地利用总量变化模型研究针对CLUE-S的非空间分析模块,通过划分状态的方法,构建了基于Gray-Markov链的非空间分析模型,准确地预测一定时间内各种土地利用类型的总量变化,避免了自然、社会等因素对土地利用状况的影响,使预测结果更加准确可靠。(2)土地利用空间变化模型研究针对CLUE-S的空间分析模块,通过在传统Logistic回归模型中,引入空间自相关变量,改进了CLUE-S模型。实验与分析结果表明,改进的空间分析模型拟合优度、拟合精度都有较大的提高。耕地、林地、建设用地及未利用地的ROC值分别从0.851、0.913、0.877和0.852提高到0.893、0.940、0.907和0.863。(3)土地利用变化模拟尺度分析在多种模拟尺度下,分析土地利用格局的模拟精度,由此确定了研究区域的最佳模拟尺度为200m,同时,运用这一尺度对区域土地利用的未来情景变化作出了模拟和预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important content of geographical research on global change today. Spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key content of LUCC. Regional land use change is a complex process of geography. While modeling is an important tool to analyze the cause and result of the land use change, and can partly reveal the complexity of the land use system, enhance the ability of explanation and prediction of the land use change, understand the function of the land use system better. It is also an important means to deepen understanding the complexity of LUCC.In recent years, CLUE-S (The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent) model has used comprehensively in the world. This study mainly aimed at CLUE-S model to improve the model in spatial anaysis module by incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model. Meanwhile, the paper selected Yongding County of Zhangjiajie city as an example. By using the improved CLUE-S model, this paper simulated and analysed regional land use change in Yongding County. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method is reasonable in some degree. At the same time, these types of analysis can provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios that need to consider local and regional conditions of actual land use, and the maps of land use changes obtained from this study can also support government decisions on land use management for Yongding County and similar areas. The main content and conclusion of this study are as follows:(1) Researching on the model of the total amount of land useAimed at the non-spatial analysis module of CLUE-S, through the state of division, this study constructed the non-spatial analysis model based on Gray-Markov chain to predict the total amounts of various land use types for a certain period of time. The Gray-Markov Chain Method is more reliable and effective because it avoids all kinds of facts about nature and society on the impact of land-use conditions. (2) Researching on the model of land use spatial changeThrough incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model, this study sets up a regression model (AutoLogistic model), which considers the spatial autocorrelation factor. Through comparison with the classic logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness of fitting and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of land use types of cultivated land, forest land, construction land and virgin land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively when using autologistic model.(3) Researching on the simulation-scale of land use changeBased on the improved CLUE-S model, land use change of Yongding County of Zhangjiajie city was simulated on different scales and the relationship of Simulation accuracy and scales was analysed by the simulation result. The optimal regional simulation scale (200m) was acquired. At the same time, the regional land-use change scenarios were simulated under the scale of 200m.更多还原