【作者】 王德军；

【导师】 魏国孝；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 酒泉市肃州区地处我国西北内陆,属干旱气候区,区内水资源短缺。随着社会、经济的发展,水资源供需矛盾逐渐突出,如何保证区域人口、社会、经济与资源和谐发展成了当务之急。本文在分析讨论水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因子的基础上,针对当前急需解决的问题,以区域人口、生态及经济规模为主要承载对象,用系统动力学方法对肃州区水资源承载力进行系统分析,并给出相应的评价指标体系。从各因子之间的动态联系出发,预测研究区人口、生态、各经济产业的发展规模及相应需水量,并参考肃州区各规划报告及肃州区水资源实际利用统计资料,对预测结果进行验证。在此基础上,从研究区可利用水资源量出发,建立肃州区水资源承载力系统动力学模型,对水资源承载力进行模拟,经过优化产业结构,反复修正、调整模型参数,得出研究区可利用水资源可以承载的偏好经济的承载力结论:在以城市生活用水200L/人.d,农村生活用水80 L/人.d,农业平均灌溉定额500m~3/亩,生态林灌溉定额350m~3/亩,第二产业产值耗水50m~3/万元,第三产业产值耗水20m~3/万元的条件下,可以承载52.4647万人口,54.8万亩耕地,47.0万亩生态林,403.5亿元第二产业产值,579.3亿元第三产业产值的结论。在此基础上,对模型的可信度及主要因子的适应性及灵敏度进行分析,并对研究区社会发展模式及水资源供需条件做简要论述,为制定区域发展规划及水资源利用方案提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Suzhou Area, in Jiuquan city, located in the northwest of China, belongs to the arid area and its water resource is scarcity. Along with social and economic development, the contradictions between water supply and demand become prominent. And that ensuring the harmonious development among the regional population society, economy and the resources has become imperative. On the basis of discussing the concept, the characteristic and the influence factors of water resources carrying capacity, considering the current need to be addressed urgently, taking the regional population, ecology and the economy scale as the main research object, this thesis selectes the system dynamic method to analyse the regional water resources carrying capacity, and writes out the estimation index. And forecasts the regional population, ecology scale, economy scale and the corresponding water resources according to the dynamic relations among the factors, and validates it with the programming and actual instance. And then, it establishes a regional available water resources carrying capacity model, through optimizing the industrial structure, amending the parameters in the model once and again, in the end, calculates out the population, ecology scale, economy scale, and the corresponding development pattern under economy favoritism: it can carry 52.4647×10~4 people, 54.8×10~4 mu farmland, 47.0×10~4 mu ecological forest, the second industrial output 40.35 billion yuan and the tertiary industry 57.93 billion yuan. Finally, it analyzes the reliability of the model, the adaptability and the sensitiveness of the main factors, and discussed the demand and supply of water resources and the development pattern under economic favoritism to direct the regional development and rational usage of water resources.更多还原