【作者】 赵伟；

【导师】 海热提；

【作者基本信息】 北京化工大学 ， 环境科学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 我国“十五”计划确定的二氧化硫和化学需氧量排放量削减目标没有完成,环保“十五"计划的实施效果并不很理想。“十一五”规划中,中央明确提出主要污染物排放量下降10%。我国已经进入重工业时代,工业是推动我国经济发展的主导因素,同时也是各类污染物的主要来源。因此能否控制好工业污染成为“十一五”约束性指标会不会落空,科学发展观究竟能否全面贯彻落实的重点。本文分析了工业污染的现状特点和变化规律,对工业主要污染物的排放量进行了因素分解分析,剖析影响工业污染变化的深层次原因。研究结果表明:（1）依照现有的发展模式,将IPAT模型的预测结果与“十一五”环保目标比较,可以看出:到“十一五”末,除了工业固废和工业COD的排放总量预计可能达到“十一五”环保目标外,工业废气、工业SO₂和工业废水污染物的排放将远远超过“十一五”环保目标。（2）通过对工业主要污染物进行因素分解分析,得出规模效应和广义技术效应分别是影响工业污染物增长和削减的主要因素,污染物增量的变化结果主要是由两者博弈的结果来决定;结构效应值较小,对总量变化的影响不大。需要注意的是广义技术效应作为污染物削减的主要因素,2000年以后未能发挥其削减污染物的作用,行业内的清洁生产有待深入开展,污染治理和清洁生产的技术和装备亟待跟进。最后,论文从政策、经济、技术和公众参与等几个方面提出了减少和控制工业污染的措施和手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 The task planned in the tenth five-year plan to reduce SO2 and COD have not achieved. In the eleventh five-year plan, the government has constituted the new aim to protected environment: the main contaminations reduce by 10%. Today, China has came into the heavy industry period. On the one hand the industry is the main factor to promote the economy development; on the other hand the industry is also the important pollution source. Thereby the one of the key to carry out the view point of scientific development is the effect of controlling industry.Firstly, this paper analyzed the actuality character and diversification. Then decomposed industrial pollution change, using decomposition analysis model to research the cause of the industrial pollution change detailedly.The result indicated that:Compared the forecast result using the IPAT model with the aim planned in the 11th five-year plan, the output of the industrial exhaust gas, SO2 and waste water will exceed the planned index, except industrial solid waste and COD. Through the decomposition analysis, the waste change is mainly decided by the scale effect, which is the main factor to increase the industrial waste and the technique effect, which is the main factor to reduce the industrial waste. The waste change. The structural effect numerical value is relative littler, so it has little effect to the waste change. As the main reducing factor, after 2000, the technique effect didn’t exert its function. So Clean-production must be pushed deeply, the technique and equipment of disposal waste and clean-production must be renovated.In the end, the paper suggested some controlling measure including police, economy, technique, public and so on.更多还原