【作者】 张志明；

【导师】 袁建新；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪末以来,WTO主导的多边贸易谈判进展迟缓,世界各国商签自由贸易协定、谋求区域经济合作的积极性日益凸显,区域经济一体化成为与经济全球化并行的一个重要趋势。中国和印度是世界上两个最大的发展中国家,又是世界上经济最具活力的地区,在世界经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用。双方由于地理位置接近,国情和经济发展阶段相似,造成两国对外贸易既竞争又互补的态势,一方面双边贸易发展迅猛,近年来中印两国贸易额年均增速达34%,2007年双边贸易额更是达到了386亿美元,中国已成为印度第二大贸易伙伴,印度是中国的第十大贸易伙伴。另一方面双边贸易摩擦日益严重,印度频频对我国商品实施反倾销调查,印度国内更有很多人把中国视为其最具威胁的竞争对手之一。因此,研究中印贸易发展现状,展望未来趋势,对双方制定正确的外贸政策,促进中印经贸合作具有重要的现实指导意义。本文运用理论和实证方法,从中印两国贸易现状入手进行剖析,寻找当前双边贸易中存在的问题以及影响两国贸易的关键性因素,并剖析产生问题的原因,从而为两国理性对待贸易摩擦、进一步加强合作争取双赢提供一些有益的对策和建议。研究内容主要分为四个部分:第一部分首先对中印贸易的理论基础进行阐述和分析,指出比较优势理论与产业内贸易理论在中印贸易中的地位和作用,为下一步中印贸易现状和成因研究提供理论依据。第二部分是中印贸易发展实证研究,根据国际贸易标准分类,系统地计算分析了中印两国贸易的总规模、比较优势指数、结合度指数、互补度指数及产业内贸易指数,并得出相关结论。第三部分主要探讨中印两国贸易发展中存在的问题,并详细分析了产生这些问题的原因。第四部分在展望中印两国贸易发展前景的基础上,从微观和宏观两个层面对进一步发展两国经贸关系提出对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The late 20^th century saw the slow progress of multilateral trade negotiations under WTO while the great enthusiasm and efforts of every economy power for the free trade agreement and regional economic cooperation. As a result, regional economic integration, besides economic globalization, is becoming another engine for the growth. China and India, two largest developing countries in the world, have found more and more voices in the world economy for their dynamic economic development. Trade between the two countries has grown competitively while mutually for their geographic proximity, similar national conditions and economic development stage. On one hand, the bilateral trade has grown very robustly. Each country’s aggregate international trade is expanding by34% annually. In 2007, the volume of trade between two countries reached up to 38.6 billion US dollars, and China already is India’s number two trading partner while India is China’s number ten trading partner. On the other hand, the trade frictions between China and India have been escalating. India has frequently initiated anti-dumping investigations against Chinese commodities and many Indians are always thinking China one of their keen competitors. Therefore, it is vital to study China-India trade development and the prospects between two sides for proper trade policies to be made and better potential cooperation.Analyzing from the present situation of Sino-Indian trade, this paper is seeking to find the trade problems and the key factors affecting the bilateral trade by the theoretical and practical ways. It explains the reasons concerning the trade conflicts and puts forward some good suggestions in how to deal with the trade conflicts rationally, and in how to strengthen cooperation and make greater efforts to find a win-win solution. The essay is made up of four parts. The first part discusses the theoretical foundation of bilateral trade, pointing out the position and role of the comparative advantage theories as well as Intra-industry trade theory, which is to lay a foundation for further research for the Sino-Indian present trade situation and the causes. The second part is about the empirical work in Sino-Indian Trade development. Classifying under international trade standard, the essay has a system calculation of Sino-Indian Trade Scale, Comparative Advantage Index,Composite Index,Complementary Index and Trade Index within the Same Industry and draws a relevant conclusion. The third part mainly analyzes the problems existing in the Sino-Indian trade development and the causes. Based on the outlook of China and India’s Bilateral trade development , the last part gives some suggestions on how to further develop the bilateral trade relationship in both micro and macro sides.更多还原