【作者】 刘国鹏；

【导师】 杨天宇；

【作者基本信息】 中国人民大学 ， 国民经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 进入和退出是产业组织理论中关联着企业、产业和市场的重要概念。产业组织经典理论认为,企业的自由进入和退出对改进市场绩效具有积极意义,因此,经济学者非常注重从实证角度对影响企业进入和退出的因素展开分析,尤其是关注进入壁垒和退出壁垒对进入和退出的影响。从实践来看,分析影响企业进入和退出决策的因素有利于从微观角度为政府制定科学有效的正常提供参考;从理论来看,从实证角度关于中国企业进入的研究非常少,目前还没有发现关于退出的实证研究。本文将利用我国2004年153个制造业行业的截面数据,对影响中国制造业进入和退出的因素进行实证分析,以弥补国内实证研究的不足。本文结构分为五大部分:第一部分介绍选题的理论和现实背景;第二部分是文献综述,分别介绍了国外和国内学者关于进入和退出问题的实证研究,整体来看,发达国家关于进入和退出的实证研究已经有丰富的成果,国内关于该问题的实证研究尚处于起步阶段,文献不多;第三部分设定本文的理论模型、介绍数据来源并进行变量的描述统计;第四部分介绍计量的主要结果并进一步展开分析;最后是本文的结论和政策含义。本文的主要研究特色有四点:第一,样本数据包含的产业数目多、分类详尽,文章使用2004年153个制造业的数据,采用三位数的产业分类标准,弥补了以往研究中产业数目少、分类粗糙的问题。第二,本文区分了企业和退出,不仅对进入展开了实证分析,而且对退出的影响因素也展开分析,并尝试验证进入壁垒和退出壁垒之间的对称关系假说。第三,解释变量中包含了资本密度、市场集中度、广告密度等国外研究中常用的指标,有利于从一般意义上全面考察企业的进入和退出,也有利于和已有研究展开比较分析。第四,本文假设国有经济比重对企业进入和退出的作用并不是简单的线性关系,构造了包括国有经济比重平方的变量以考察可能的非线性关系。此外,本文按照国有经济比重对样本产业重新进行分组,分别考察了分组下企业进入和退出的影响因素差异。文章重点关注了国有经济对企业进入和退出的效应。实证结果表明,企业进入随着国有经济比重的变化会呈现出变化的趋势,两者之间并不是简单的线性关系。我们进一步发现,在国有经济比重较高的行业,进入壁垒主要是源于行业本身特有的结构性壁垒,国有经济本身并不是显著的进入壁垒;在国有经济比重较低的行业,国有经济是显著的进入壁垒。和现有理论不同,本文的结果表明,国有经济对退出有显著的正向作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Entry and exit are important concepts in industrial organization, which combine enterprise, industry and market. The classic theory of industrial organization points that the free entry and exit can have positive effect on improving market performance. So, economist attaches big importance on the empirical study of entry and exit. In practice, analyzing the determinants of entry and exit can provide theoretical reference for government’s industrial policy from micro-economical aspect. In theory, empirical studies on china enterprise’s entry behavior are quite few and we haven’t found the empirical studies on exit. Using cross-section data of 153 China manufacturing industries in 2004, this paper conducts an empirical analysis examining the entry and exit factors in China’s manufacturing industries.The paper includes five parts. Part one is the theoretical and practical background of this paper. The second part reviews the existing empirical studies on entry and exit; on the whole, there are many empirical studies of entry and exit in developed countries, but there are few papers on this study in China. The third part sets the empirical model and introduces the source of data. In section four, the paper tells the empirical results and conducts related analysis. At last, we have our conclusion and findings.The characteristics of this paper are as follows: firstly, the sample is 3-digital cross-section data of 153 China manufacturing industries in 2004, thus including more industries; secondly, this paper conducts individual empirical study on both entry and exit, and we also empirically examine the hypothesis that there is a symmetrical relationship between entry and exit barriers; thirdly, our empirical equation includes the general variables such as capital intensity, market concentration and advertisement intensity, which can better our analysis on entry and exit and can compare our results with existing studies; fourthly, we have the hypothesis that the effect of state- owned economy (SOE) on entry and exit are not simple linear, and we try to examine the nonlinear relationship between them, at the same time, we divided our sample into two groups on the basis of the share of SOE and test the effects of different parts.We particularly focus on the effect of state- owned economy (SOE) on entry and exit. The empirical result shows that there is an unlinear relationship between entry and the share of SOE. What’s more, we find that the state-owned economy is not be the entry barrier in industries with a relatively higher share of SOE and it is the structural barriers, e.g. absolute cost barriers, that reduce entry; however, such effect is significant in industries with a relatively lower share of SOE. Contrary to the existing studies, our result proves that SOE has a significantly positive effect on exit.更多还原