【作者】 陈俊励；

【导师】 毛保华； 孙全欣；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,随着我国国民经济的不断增长,城市机动化水平的逐渐提高,城市交通和环境的压力不断增大,提高大容量公交系统的服务水平,增加其吸引力是我们迫切需要解决的问题。当然,解决城市交通问题,离不开对生活在城市中的人的交通行为即居民出行特征的研究。因此,本文在城市居民出行调查的基础上,从出行行为的角度,利用基于出行和活动的分析方法,研究城市居民公交出行的特征,挖掘其潜在的规律性,同时对公交服务的时空范围以及公交需求状况进行了研究。研究的主要内容包括以下几个方面:(1)首先确定了研究范围,即公交出行行为研究,论述了公交出行行为研究的重要性。其次综述了国内外关于出行行为的研究现状,指出了城市公交出行行为研究的匮乏。然后介绍了出行方式选择的理论基础,总结了出行方式选择的影响因素和基于方式的出行行为特征指标体系。最后,重点阐述了出行行为研究的模型理论——效用最大化理论和非集计型Logit模型理论,说明了非集计模型在居民个体的出行行为研究中的适用性。(2)结合北京市第三次居民出行调查数据库,利用基于出行和活动的分析方法,运用VFP编程工具和SPSS统计软件,分析了城市居民公交出行的特征和规律。首先,对现状公交分担率以及公交出行的目的构成进行了分析,明确了公交在城市交通中的作用和地位。然后,通过公交方式与其它出行方式之间的对比分析,研究了出行者之间的个人属性、家庭属性等的差异。最后,专门对公交出行的时间、空间以及换乘特性进行了详细的分析。(3)以曲线回归模型理论为基础,对公交服务的时空范围进行研究。选择S型曲线模型,分别对出行时耗和出行距离的比例分布曲线进行拟合,建立了公交出行时耗和出行距离比例分布模型,明确了公交方式在时间和空间上的服务范围。(4)基于Logit模型理论,建立了以时间选择为上层、方式选择为下层的两层Nested Logit模型,通过参数检验,论证了模型的有效性。同时,定量分析了出行者属性特征对出行行为选择的影响情况。最后着重分析了在城市居民出行中出行者的各种属性对出行时段选择(包括高峰时段和非高峰时段)的影响程度以及对出行方式选择(包括自行车、公交和小汽车)的影响程度,阐述了引导小汽车方式和自行车方式出行向公交方式转化的可能性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the continuous growth of national economy and the urban motorization level gradually increasing, the pressure of traffic and environmental problems become more and more serious day by day. Improving the service in public transport and increasing its attractiveness is an urgent need. Of course, to address urban transport problems, can not be separated from the life of the people in the cities. Study on the travel characteristics of the urban residents is a good way to solve the problem. So, based on the investigation database in Beijing, this paper concentrates on the travel behavior analysis of urban residents in public transport, including travel regulation and characteristic, service time and space in public transport, and the demand of public transport. Focused on travel behavior study in public transport, this paper has done some work as follows:(1) This paper firstly confirms the range of study, which is travel in public transport. And then it discussed the importance of study on the travel behavior in public transport. Secondly, this paper summarizes research situation about travel behavior at home and abroad, and indicates the lack of urban travel research in public transport. Then this paper introduces the basic theory in travel mode choice, describe the impact factor and travel behavior characteristics index system in travel mode choice. In addition, this paper sets forth that travelers pursue travel choice utility maximum, and then presents the main study model—Logit model and its characters.(2) Based on the third travel survey database in Beijing, using travel and activity analysis methods, this paper analyzes characters of travel in public transport through VFP program tool and SPSS statistical software. At first, this paper analyzes the split rate of public transport at now and the structure of travel purpose, and shows its action and status in urban passenger traffic. Secondly, this paper contrastively analyzes proportion change of travel by public transport and other main travel modes under different influencing factors, which include personal attributes, family attributes, travel attributes and so on. At last, this paper especially studies on the travel time, travel space and travel exchange in public transport.(3) Based on the theory of curve regression model, this paper studies on the service time and space in public transport. Choosing S-curve model, this paper separately establishes the percent distribution model of trip time and trip distance and shows the range of service time and distance by public transit.(4) Based on the theory of Logit model, this paper builds the 2-level Nested Logit model, departure time choice as the up level and travel mode choice as the down level. Through the parameter test, the model is goodness of fit. At the same time, this paper quantificationally analyzes the impact on the travel behavior from the factors, and focuses on the effect degree of individual attributes for travel time (including peak hours and non-peak hours) and travel mode (including bicycle, public transport and car), and at last expounds the possibility that car travel and bicycle travel can be transformed to public transport travel.更多还原