融资结构影响投资行为的实证研究

【作者】 王韬；

【导师】 陆文聪；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 硕士

【副题名】以房地产上市公司为例

【摘要】 近年来我国房地产业发展十分迅速,已成为推动我国经济增长的支柱产业之一。统计资料显示,近年来我国房地产业投资增幅明显高于其他产业,但以银行贷款为主的相对单一的融资渠道,不仅使我国银行系统面临较大的金融风险,同时也使房地产业的健康发展存在隐患。因此,从融资结构的视角深入研究影响我国房地产企业投资行为的主要因素,揭示房地产企业融资结构变动对投资行为的影响机理,这不仅在微观上对房地产企业进行合理的投融资决策,同时在宏观上改善政府对房地产发展的调控,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文将融资结构定义为滞后期的资产负债率及当期融资增量,以此为出发点,在综述国内外相关理论和实证研究成果的基础上,首先在理论上探讨了企业融资结构对投资行为的影响机理,系统地分析了我国房地产企业融资的主要渠道及国外同类企业的成功融资经验。在此基础上,基于由2003-2006年和58家房地产上市公司财务数据组成的样本面板数据,采用主营业务收入增长率指标和风险转移动机指标,对全部样本企业进行了量化测度和分类,并采用计量经济学分析方法,分别从企业成长性和投资风险偏好两个不同的维度,实证分析了资产负债率、外源融资等因素对房地产上市公司投资支出的影响程度,并进一步探讨了房地产上市公司融资结构与投资行为之间的内在关系。研究结果发现,我国房地产上市公司投资支出规模主要受负债融资约束的影响;高成长性企业表现为明显的过度投资,且主要由外源融资决定,其中具有风险偏好倾向的成长性的企业投资进一步受到滞后资产负债率的影响;对低成长性房地产公司,其投资行为的主要受到资产负债率的负面影响,其中具有风险规避倾向的企业投资行为,资产负债率与投资行为的负向关系更加强烈。根据上述研究结果,本文从我国房地产企业外源融资渠道单一的现状出发,根据研究结论提出了加强企业债券市场建设以及完善债权人治理机制的政策建议,以促进我国房地产行业的健康、稳定发展。从现有相关研究来看,文本的创新之处主要是:以我国房地产上市公司为样本,研究企业融资结构对投资行为的影响问题,在选题上具有独到之处;基于企业成长性以及企业风险转移动机二维分类度量,引入企业价值、现金流、主营业务资产收益率等指标,分别考察了不同成长性和投资风险偏好情况下房地产上市公司的投资行为的差异,不仅研究视角上实现了新的突破,同时也在研究方法上具有明显的创新性,提升了研究问题的针对性和结果的科学性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years China’s real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries which promoted the national economic growth. The relevant statistics show that, the growth of China’s real estate investment was higher than that of other industries in recent years.But its financing was mainly depend on bank loans which make banking system have to face potential risks, and it also make the industry’s development suffered from hidden dangers. Therefore,it’s very important to study the major factors which affected the investment behavior of China’s real estate enterprises to invest from the perspective of the financing structure. The research of the internal mechanism revealed how the financing structure impact the real estate business investment behavior, it is of important theoretical and practical significance for micro enterprises decision-making and the govoment’s macro regulation.In this paper, the financing structure is defined as a time lag rate of the assets and liabilities and the current increment financing,and studied the affect mechanism of the financing stucture and investment behavior based on the results of theories and and it also did systematic analysis of China’s real estate enterprises’ financing channels and foreign enterprises’ related experience. The empirical research was based on the panel data which composed of 58 listed real estate companies financial data from the year of 2003 to 2006 and use the quantified business revenue growth indicators and risk transfer motivation indicators to classify all the examples, and explore the intrisic relations of financing sturcture and investment behavior from two different dimensions of growth and investment risks Preference. The results showed that investment of China’s listed real estate company was mainly affected by the constraint of liabilities financing and the high growth samples performed like over-investment, and the main affected by the exogenous financing, and futher the enterprises which have risk preference tendency was further affected by the asset liability ratio.The enterprises which grow slower showed that the rate of assets and liabilities have negative effects on their investment behavior, and the effect become more serious in the enterprised which have risk aversion tendency. According to the results of the study and based on current situation of highly depending on the channel of exogenous financing, this paper proposed the policy recommendation of construct corporate bond market and creditors governance mechanisms to promote the stable development of China’s real estate industry. From the existing research,there are innovations is this paper such as follows: the topics is unique which choosed China’s listed real estate companies as the samples to study the impact mechanism between the financing structure and the investment behavior.The empirical studies was based on two dimensions of the growth ability and the investment risk preferences of the previous enterprise situation and got the relative importance of specific mechanisms on various elements such as enterprise value, cash flow and asset yield which reveall the behaviour difference of listed real estate companies.The empirical research method has obvious perspective innovation and make the research more targeted. However, the empirical study of this paper has not yet considered the China’s dual characteristics of the ownership structure,and proposed the further study for improvement.更多还原