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中韩贸易的发展与潜力分析

Analysis to the Development of Sino-Korea Trade and the Potential Growth

【作者】 李冬

【导师】 徐文吉;

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 , 世界经济, 2008, 硕士

【摘要】 中韩两国地理位置相近,往来历史悠久,文化传统相似,在自然资源、劳动力资源和产业结构方面都存在很强的互补性。近年来,中韩贸易迅速发展,中韩贸易问题也一直受到很多学者的关注。中韩两国建交后,双边贸易额增长快速,发展潜力巨大。但随着两国经贸关系的进一步发展,一些不容忽视的问题逐渐暴露出来,包括两国贸易逆差问题、贸易摩擦问题、贸易竞争问题等。韩国作为中国的友好邻邦,中韩贸易的健康、快速发展对中韩乃至东北亚地区都有十分重要的意义。本文通过对前人研究成果的梳理,以中韩贸易发展的历史数据为依据,分析概括中韩贸易的特点、问题,建立并借助适合中国的贸易引力模型,深入解析中韩贸易的前景,在此基础上对促进中韩贸易的发展提出一些对策性建议。

【Abstract】 China and Korea are the two important nations in the northeast Asian regions, along with the development of post-war international trade, the two countries’economic trade cooperation develops fast,cooperation realm opens widely continuously, both parties’ trade growth is astonishing, and the prospect is good. Currently , China has become Korean biggest trade cooperation partner, Korea also becomes China’s sixth trading partner, but we should notice that some problems also exist which are worthy of concern and resolving. Base on the characteristics of the two countries trade, this thesis investigates the post-war history of trade cooperation development, and analyzes the existing problems and prospect of trade cooperation between these two countries. At last we conclude the countermeasures to solve those problems.The first part is the history recalling. Because of the Cold War structure and form after the World War II, the two countries’exchanges are broken off, the economic and trade relationship also is placed in“deep freeze". Along with the Cold War situation slowing down, the two people overcome resistance, and recover the economic trade contacts slowly. The two countries’trade cooperation can be divided mainly into three parts: the first stage is from "defrost" to an indirect trade stage; the second stage is arrived a direct trade stage from the indirect trade; the third stage is from direct trade to quick develop stage.The second part is the characteristics investigation of Sino-Korea trade .While the two countries’trade volumes increase quickly,small fluctuations exist, too. Since 1992 in which year the two countries established diplomatic relationship, the bilateral trade volume grows quickly, the trade volume is increased by USD 5,028,000,000 in 1992 to USD 134,310,000,000 in 2006, increasing 25.700%, average year growth speed is 24.5%.But because of the influence of two countries’trade policy and economy environments, Sino-Korea trade still exists certain fluctuations .Second is the dissymmetry of trade structure , but have variety .Korea export capital and technique intensive type merchandise to China, while China export primary commodity or low technique content , low additional value labor-intensive type product to Korea. But this kind of circumstance has a change in the last few years, mainly having a few characteristics as following: China’s product to Korea exit from the light industry article toward heavy chemical engineering industry product, from low additional value to high additional value product. China’s export regards middle product as principle, and the end product increases. Sino-Korea transfer from low technical product to medium, and high technical product. Third, Sino- Korea. inside industry trade develops quickly .Along with the scale of Sino- Korea. trade extends; IT also develops quickly inside industry, and already becomes the main form. Fourth , trading relationship is close, combining degree is high .Sino- Korea trade’s combining degree is higher, and they are all bigger than 1, China’s average combing degree is 2.6 to Korea, Korean average combining degree is 3.41 to China, all belonging to high trade combining degree .The high trade combining degree reflects the close trade relationship of Sino-Korea trade.The third part is a problem investigation. Along with the development of the bilateral trade, the two countries’trade also meets with some problems. One is that the imbalance trade is seriously between the two countries. The main reasons are as following: The trade chain position that China is placed in East Asia decides there will be a big unfavorable balance of trade between China and Korea. China and Korea has riding comparative advantage. The Korea invests to China grows fast . The trade barrier of Korea. Second is that trade friction increases gradually. Third is that trade competition will be gradually vigorous.The fourth part is a potential analysis. First we analyze the potential While exploring a trade gravitation model. Traded gravitation model has acquired big success in the international trade, and is extensive used in the trade potential calculating, trade group effect discriminating, analyzing trade mode and estimating boundary cost, etc. This thesis is based on the actual circumstance of bilateral trade; tries to establish a bilateral trade gravitation mode. Through the return and estimate, we get a conclusion that the protect of bilateral trade will be good,and its potential will be huge. Second , the good prospect of the bilateral trade provides emollient guarantee and strong motive for the further development of bilateral trade.The fifth part is a counter plan suggestion. First, we should solve the trade deficit problem reasonably. Second, Here we give some suggestions such as strengthening the two countries’coordination, improve both parties’trade structure and enlarge investment mutually and strengthen China’s independent creative ability ,etc. Second, we should promptly resolve bilateral trade friction. Third, we suggest strongly to push free trade area construction,and to push the bilateral trade.

【关键词】 中韩贸易双边贸易贸易引力模型
  • 【网络出版投稿人】 吉林大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2008年 11期
  • 【分类号】F752.7
  • 【被引频次】7
  • 【下载频次】1412
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