【作者】 王玉霞；

【导师】 陈茗；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 人口、资源和环境经济学， 2007， 硕士

【副题名】以厦门市为例

【摘要】 住宅市场的发展是社会的热点问题,也是关系国计民生的重大问题,在目前住宅市场存在颇多争议的情况下,对影响我国城市住宅需求的因素进行研究更具有其理论和现实意义。影响住宅需求的因素繁多复杂,而本研究落脚在中国城市住宅需求上,从一个宏观和中观的角度来展开研究,研究的对象确定为有效住宅需求,并包含消费需求和投资需求两大部分。影响城市住宅需求的因素包括人口因素、经济因素、区域城市因素、资本因素和政策因素,这些方面构成了一个比较完整的理论框架,为后续的实证分析奠定理论基础。通过对我国31个城市样本所做的面板数据多元回归分析可以知道,我国城市住宅需求存在着明显的区位和城市差异,城市总体经济水平、人均经济水平、第三产业产值占GDP的比重、实际利用外资总额、客运总量都是影响住宅需求的主要变量,并且需求在年份上也表现出了差异;而对厦门市2002年1月到2006年9月的时间序列分析可以知道,影响厦门住宅需求的主要因素是:自回归因素、季节自回归因素、人均可支配收入、国际旅游人数、实际利用外资总额和异地购房比重,宏观调控政策在厦门市还没有表现出长期的影响,同时对厦门住宅需求的预测表明需求会进一步增加。本研究的特色和创新之处在于:一是纳入涵盖各方面的影响因素,构建了比较完整的理论框架;二是通过横向与纵向的实证分析,确定除了经济因素外,城市集聚能力也是影响我国城市住宅需求的主要因素;三是找出了厦门市住宅需求的特点,并建立时间序列模型做出了预测。本研究通过客观的科学研究,在一定程度上支持了建设海峡西岸经济区,提高海湾城市集聚能力的政府构想。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of residential market are both the controversial problem in the society and the key point about the national economy and the people’s livelihood which makes the study on effective factors of city residential demand in China much more significant.The effective factors of residential demand are various and complicated. Based on the Chinese cities, the study aims at effective residential demand which including the consumption demand and investment demand from the macro-economics and meso-economics views. The effective factors of city residential demand include the population factor, economic factor, different region and city factor, capital factor and policy factor, which consist the whole theoretical framework. The theoretical framework is the foundation of empirical analysis as follows.Through the multi-regression analysis based on the panel data of 31 city samples in China, the city residential demand appears obvious differences between regions and cities. The primary effective factors are the whole and per capital economic development level, the GDP ratio of the tertiary industry to total, total amount of foreign capital actually utilized and total volume of tourist transportation. The residential demand also changed as the time goes by. Through the time series analysis of Xiamen city based on the data from Jan.2002 to Sep.2006, the primary effective factors are the autoregression factor, seasonal autoregression factor, per capita disposal income, the number of foreign tourists, total amount of foreign capital actually utilized and the ratio of residential sales revenue of the buyer from the Xiamen city to out of the Xiemen City. The macroeconomic regulation and control policy didn’t appear consistent influence in Xiamen and the prediction of the residential demand of Xiamen shows that: the residential demand will keep on increasing.This paper has three characters as follows: (1) Built up the integrated theoretical study framework from all kinds of effective factors; (2) Based on the empirical analysis from landscape orientation and time series orientation, found that besides the economic factors, the convergence ability of a city is a very important influence factor; (3) Discovered the characters of residential market in Ximen and predict the residential demand based on time series model.Through the objective study, this paper supports the plan of the government, which is to build economic region in the west of Taiwan Straits and improve the convergence ability of the cities around the bay.更多还原