【作者】 王翔；

【导师】 刘欣；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 工商管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 在通信市场竞争空前激烈的情况下,通信项目建设的任务越来越重。因此如何合理地安排项目进度,优化项目活动,确保项目预期完工,已成为项目管理者最重要目标之一,进度管理发挥了越来越重要的作用。本文首先介绍项目管理和项目进度管理的基本概念,描述了项目进度管理的重要性,阐述了项目进度几种评估工具的发展和应用,着重探讨了蒙特卡洛模拟法理论和方法,随后对比分析了CPM技术、PERT技术和蒙特卡洛模拟法在项目进度评估时的优劣,最后用CRYSTAL BALL软件建立了蒙特卡洛仿真模型对笔者所负责的TD-S CDMA项目的进度进行了预测和优化,确保项目能够如期完工。利用蒙特卡洛模型使项目进度评估这一复杂困难的定量分析工作变得简单方便,并且结果更加准确可靠。应用实例分析的结果表明:利用CRYSTAL BALL软件建立的蒙特卡洛模型,输出结果丰富,是评估、分析、优化项目进度的有效工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of communication and the intensifying competition among its operators, the construction of communication facilities becomes very crucial and important. So the sound arrangement of Project Schedule and the optimization of project to complete the project on schedule have been the most important goal for Project Manager. And Project-Schedule Management becomes more and more important.Firstly, the basic conception of PM and Project-Schedule Management, the importance of Project-Schedule Management, and the development and application of some Project-Schedule evaluation tools, especially the theory and method of Monte Carlo simulation model are described in the dissertation. Then the advantages and disadvantages of CPM, PERT and Monte Carlo simulation model are analyzed. Finally, The CRYSTAL BALL software is utilized to establish the Monte Carlo simulation model simulation of TD-S CDMA Project, forecast and optimize the project. The method for establishing the modeling, simulation, analysis and optimization by CRYSTAL BALL software can make the complicated quantitative analysis of Project-Schedule plan evaluation easier, and the result more reliable.Application research reveal that Monte Carlo simulation founded by CRYSTAL BALL software can provide a flexible and efficient modeling instrument to evaluate, analyze, and optimize the project-schedule.更多还原