【作者】 张红伟；

【导师】 王志宏；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 硕士

【副题名】以葫芦岛市房地产业为例

【摘要】 近年来,关于房地产业出现泡沫的舆论逐渐增多,包括来自高层的警告。国家计委《中国行业景气分析报告》称,2002年可能是房地产业的转折点,持续繁荣了近5年的市场将进入中期调整过程,真实的房地产泡沫已经出现。建设部发出的“政策导向”,要求加强建筑用地和项目监管,严格控制豪宅审批量,鼓励建设经济适用房。而央行也对各商业银行的房地产金融业务进行大检查强调:房地产价格上涨、空置面积增加的潜在风险值得关注:商业银行在支持房地产业发展的同时,要切实加强信贷管理,警惕房地产泡沫的出现。本文研究的主要内容是房地产泡沫的内涵、特征、产生原因、时代背景,从生产层面、交易层面、消费层面分析了泡沫存在的可能性,并基于房地产泡沫相关评价指标来对房地产泡沫进行测度,结合国家2003年推行的工程量清单计价方法,用市场成本法对葫芦岛住宅业基础价值进行了测算,并与现实房价相比较,从定性和定量两个方面来分析葫芦岛市的房地产市场,建立了泡沫测度模糊预警模型,最后给出了房地产泡沫的预警和治理措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 There has been a more and more large body of academic and industry research on real estate bubbles in recent years including the warning from the central government. Report of China’s Industry Boom Analysis said that the year of 2002 could be the turning point for Chinese real estate industry, and pointed that the real estate industry which had been prosper for five years would enter the stage of adjustment of the market. The true real estate bubbles have come forth. "Policy Oriented" presented by Construction Ministry requires that the inspection of land for construction and the project should be strengthened, and should strictly control the approvals of luxury housing construction and encourage the building of economic housing. The Central Bank inspected the business of real estate finance of commercial banks and emphasized that we should pay attention to the risk involved in the rising of real estate price and increasing of vacancy. The commercial banks should strengthen the credit loan management and look out the real estate bubbles when supporting the development of real estate industry.This paper is to explore the connotation, characteristics, causes and background of real estate bubbles, the possibilities of which are also studied from perspectives of production, trade and consumption. Based on relevant standards real estate bubbles will be measured. Based on the project amount inventory implemented in 2003 in China, through the Market cost method, the basic value of real estate in HuluDao will also be evaluated. Besides, in contrast to the real value of real estate, the paper will analyze the real estate market in HuluDao by using the quantitative and qualitative methods. A warning mode of real estate bubbles is established, and finally the paper brings forward the warning and measures of managing real estate bubbles.更多还原