【作者】 王鹏；

【导师】 李天德；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 金融自由化、贸易自由化、世界经济一体化是世纪之初世界经济的根本特征。人们在充分享受经济全球化带来的效益的同时，也遭受着现代国际金融危机的考验。进入20世纪90年代以来，国际金融危机爆发的频率和力度都在不断加深，对世界经济的危害日益严重。在1997年以前，金融危机似乎离我们很遥远，我们一直处在经济高速增长而享有良好美誉的“亚洲奇迹”中。亚洲金融危机发生后，我国对国际金融的研究越来越重视。金融市场全球化背景下的金融危机具有不容忽略的国际传导性。随着各国经济联系越来越紧密，各国金融市场呈现出较高的相关性。金融危机从一个国家向另一个国家传输，这种现象被认为是金融危机传导。金融危机的传导机制涉及金融系统、投资和消费、实体经济部门、社会信用等社会经济生活各个领域，是一种多方面的综合效应。本文立足于对国际金融危机传导机制研究的传统理论与方法，对国际金融危机理论与模型进行了系统的梳理，进一步分析了开放经济条件下危机传导的影响因素。运用计量分析方法，着重从模型出发，定量地阐述并说明了危机的传染效应及渠道，为理解金融危机国际传导机制的作用机理奠定了基础。在借鉴理论界对金融危机生成和传导机制研究的基础上，运用规范与实证相结合的分析方法，将国际金融危机传导分为接触机制和非接触传导机制，在此基础上对国际贸易、国际资本流动、市场预期、金融传染、季风效应等传导渠道进行了详细的研究；并对20世纪90年代的五次国际金融危机进行了实证剖析，运用比较研究的方法，通过对五次危机的比较分析，得出一系列总结。这几次危机的产生背景、波及的范围、造成的损害是各不相同的；同时由于这些国家所处的经济发展阶段不同和少数大国的意志决策，应对危机采取的措施和效果也不尽相同。但是从这五次国际金融危机我们可以看出：不管是经济基础较差、经济发展不稳定的发展中国家，还是经济实力较强、金融体系较为完备的发达国家，都存在发生金融危机的可能性，只是这些诱发危机的因素不同。最后在理论研究和对策研究相结合的基础上，基于对国际金融危机传导机制研究所得到的防范启示，联系到中国目前面临的金融风险，探讨了在危机发生与传导日益频繁的背景下维护我国金融稳定和防范金融危机的对策措施。本文在理论和实证方面为国际金融危机传导的研究作了一定的贡献，并试图找出一组能对危机进行有效预警的指标体系。但是由于时间和精力有限，对这套指标体系并未进行有效的整合，没有形成一套完整的预警方案，希望在以后的学习和工作中能对其进一步进行研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fundamental characters for world economy at the beginning of the 21th century are financial liberalization, trade liberalization and integration of the world economy.People are surferring international financial crisis’ trials while they enjoy the benefits to the full which be given by economic globalization. Since 1990,the frequency and force of international financial crisis has kept rising.lt is becoming more serious with World Economy. Before 1997, the financial crisis seemd far from us. We had been going through a period in which the economy was developing with a high speed, and this situation had been called "Asian miracle" at once. But after financial crisis in Asia was taken place, our country pays great attention to the research of international finance crisis.In the era of the globalization of financial market, the internatinal transfer of financial crisis cannot be ignored .With the economic ties between countries have become ever stronger, it is takes on high correlation in financial markets of linked countries. International financial crisis can transmitted from one country to another country. This phenomenon is identified as financial transmission.The transmission mechanism of international financial crisis involves nearly every aspect of social life,such as finance system, investment and consumption, the real economy sectors,the social credit and so on.lt is a unified effect viewed in various ways.This paper relies on traditional theory and methods of transmission mechanism in international finance crisis, and refreshes the theory and models of international finance crisis systemly, then analyzes the impact factor of transmission mechanism under open economy condition further. This page uses methods of econometric analysis and emphases to set out from the model.Through quantitatively analysing the transmiss effects and canals, it lays a good foundation for comprehending the conduct mechanism of transmission mechanism in international finance crisis. Benefiting from research in formation mechanism and transmission mechanism of financial crisis,this article divides the transmission mechanism into contact mechanism and uncontact mechanism. Based on this,it studies the transmission canal carefully,such as international trade,international capital flows,market expection,finance infection ,Monsoonal Effects and so on. And I positively dissects the five international finance crisises of 1990’s. Through analysising these international finance crisises wo can draw a series conclusions: Not ohly are they different in background, scope and damage, they are also in different stage of development. And because of the decision-making for some major countries is divergent, the measures and effectiveness to deal with crisises are inconsistency. From this five international finance crisises we can see , both the developing countries in which the economic foundations are bad and developments are unstable and the developed countries in which the economic strength are strong and the financial systems are complete,however,have the possibility to face finance crisise. The difference among them is induced factors. Finally on the base of theories and corresponding countermeasures,this paper uses the inspiration of guard based on research of transmission mechanism and links with financial risks China is facing in order to investigate the measures,which can ensure Chinese finance stability and guard against financial risks against such background that finance crisises are happening and transmissing with increasing frequency. This paper did some contribution to study with transmission mechanism in international finance crisis from theory and positivism. It also wants to find a indicator system to warn the crisis effectly. However, because of the limited time and energy, I have not finished a complete bid, so I wish I can make further researches later.更多还原