【作者】 杨光辉；

【导师】 李自力；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学 ， 油气储运工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 ii随着我国石油化工工业的发展以及国家原油战略储备库项目的实施,油罐的大型化将成为发展的必然趋势,其危险性也大大增加,因此非常有必要对大型油罐进行火灾爆炸危害性研究分析,找出危险因素,采取相应的措施,以确保生产的安全运行,为企业及社会减灾防灾提供理论依据。本文主要从以下几个方面进行研究和分析:(1)阐述了模糊综合评价法以及该法在评价大型油罐火灾爆炸危险性上的应用,利用该方法分别对油罐安全设备及措施和油罐安全管理这两大类因素进行概率危险性评价,对人因因素也进行概率危险性评价,并将这三种概率值合成新的概率值:大型油罐发生火灾爆炸的概率。将模糊数学的思想引入到概率模型中,使求得的概率值更符合实际。用C++Builder编出了相应的软件,并以实际例子对模型进行了验证,结果较为理想。(2)分析了爆炸波伤害模型和爆炸波效应模型,选择蒸气云爆炸波伤害模型,结合油品泄漏的蒸发模型,得出了适合评价大型油罐发生爆炸事故后果的方法。并进行了实际应用,效果较为理想。(3)根据大量火灾爆炸事故的分析结果,找出了油罐安全方面存在的一些问题,并提出了预防火灾爆炸事故的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of our country petrochemical industry and the actualization of the Country crude oil strategic reserves warehouse project,Oil tank’s heavy section-rization will become the inevitable developing trend, its danger increases greatly .So it is very necessary to research into the Fire and Explosion Endangerment of the Large-Scale Oilcan and to find out the dangerous factor and approach that may initiates an accident , thereby bring forward the safe countermeasure and take appropriate measures to ensure producing safety operation, and provide the theory basis for enterprises and society to cut down a disaster guard against a disaster. Main work of this paper can be summed up as follows:(1) Expatiate the application of the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the evaluation of a large oil tank fire and explosion hazards. The method is used to estimate the probabilistic risk of the safety equipment and measures and safety management of the oil tank. Also estimate men’s factors on the probability risk. This will be a new synthesis of the three probabilities probability: the probability of the fire and explosion of the large oil tank. Add the idea of fuzzy math to the probability model,So the probability value obtained is more realistic. Compile the corresponding software in C + + Builder, and validate the practical examples, and the results are satisfactory. (2)Analyse the explosion wave hurt model and the explosion wave effect model, and choose the explosion wave hurt model, and combine the evaporation model of oil leak, ascertain out the suitable method to value the damage and the destruction that bring about by the fire and explosion of the large-scale oilcan. And validate the practical examples, and the results are satisfactory.(3) Based on the analysis result of a large number of fire and explosion accident, find some problems of tank safety, And bring up preventive measures of the fire and explosion accident.更多还原