【作者】 陈勇强；

【导师】 李勇辉；

【作者基本信息】 湘潭大学 ， 区域经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产业是我国新的发展阶段的一个重要支柱产业,引导和促进房地产业持续、稳定、健康发展,有利于保持整个经济平稳较快增长,有利于满足广大人民群众的基本住房消费需求,有利于实现全面建设小康社会的目标。然而现实是在我国某些区域性城市房地产业的发展过程中出现了房地产发展过热、房地产价格上涨过快,以及过度炒作房地产等很多问题。如果这些问题处理不好,就很有可能局部演变成房地产泡沫,从而对我国整体性宏观经济造成不可估量的影响。本文在借鉴国内外房地产泡沫理论研究的基础上,引用中国目前最新的统计数据,通过定量与定性相结合的方法研究了我国1998-2005年房地产业运行的特征并用定量分析的指标对其进行评判。同时还对长江三角洲经济圈、珠江三角洲经济圈、环渤海经济圈等三大城市经济圈的一些经济发展迅速的大中城市,重点是北京、上海市的房地产市场情况进行了分析。目的不仅在于对中国房地产业是否存在泡沫进行探讨性分析,更在于进一步找出诱发我国房地产过热的潜在因素。最后在以上分析的基础上,提出防范房地产泡沫的政策建议,使我国的房地产业能够得到持续、快速、健康的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry is an important pillar industry in new developing stage in china. Leading and accelerating real estate industry’s sustainable , steady and healthy development will be beneficial to keep whole economy increase smoothly , to satisfy basic housing consuming requirement from most people and to achieve the goal of building well-off society in all-round way. However, the truth is that there occurs many issues during the development process of real estate industry in some cities, such as, overheating of housing investment , skyrocketing housing prices , excessively speculating real estate industry , etc. If those issues are not managed well, it is probable for the part to change into the real estate bubble. To conclude from the fact of bubble burst in south-east countries, the real estate bubble brings not only huge risk to finance institutes , but also the effect you cannot measure to economy development of one country.On the basis of using the inside and outside research of real estate bubble theory for reference, quoting the latest statistic data of China and matches the definite quantity research method and Qualitative research method together, this text studies the characteristic of the real estate industry’s operation between 1998-2005 in our country and judges it with the definite quantity analysis indicator. Meanwhile , this text analyses the real estate market in some large and middle cities, especially Bei Jing and Shang Hai , which have high development speed in the Yangtze delta , Zhu Jiang delta and round Bo Hai delta , not only for the purpose of discussing and analyzing whether there exist bubbles in China ’s real estate or not but also finding out the latent factors of superheat in our country’ s real estate industry . At last, on the basis of above analysis , it analyses the questions that exist in our country’ s current real estate and bring forward some policies and advices for defending the real estate bubble in order to get the confineable development for our country’s real estate industry .更多还原