【作者】 汪朝霞；

【导师】 梁君林；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 社会保障， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 广义上说,养老金隐性债务源于政府为私人养老金计划提供的担保和政府在提供公共养老金计划时所作的承诺,其中,规模最大、存在范围最广的养老金隐性债务是政府在现收现付型公共养老保险制度下所作的承诺。当前世界上的许多国家都在不同程度地进行养老金制度改革,改革的共同点是将传统的现收现付融资模式转变为基金积累融资模式,从而无可避免地导致了原制度下所积累的养老金隐性债务部分或全部的显性化。养老金制度转型成功与否,与准确核算原制度下养老金隐性债务显性化的规模以及制定合理的解决方案密切相关的。中国自上世纪90年代以来,在养老金制度方面进行了几次重大改革,已确立了部分基金积累的融资模式,这意味着中国也同样无法回避养老金隐性债务的显性化问题。本文运用经济学、统计学、人口学和保险精算学等理论对养老金隐性债务的显性化问题进行研究,同时强调定性分析与定量分析、静态分析与动态分析相结合。一方面以养老保险理论为依据对养老金隐性债务显性化的原因、特征、构成进行理论分析;以精算学理论为依据对显性化过程进行动态模拟;另一方面运用人口、宏观经济等数据计算分析各种偿债方式的可行性,提出分阶段偿付我国养老金隐性债务显性化部分的组合性方案。全文由导言、养老金隐性债务显性化过程的定性分析、养老金隐性债务显性化过程的定量分析、养老金隐性债务显性化部分的化解、结论共五部分组成。更多还原

【Abstract】 Broadly speaking,the implicit pension debt(IPD) is rooted from the government guarantee on personal pension scheme or its commitment on public one while the IPD with the largest magnitudes and scope is guaranteed by the government under the pay-as-you-go scheme of the public pension. Many countries in the world are reforming their pension systems,the common ground of these reforms is to change from pay-as-you-go finance mode to fund accumulation finance mode, which unavoidably leads to partial or full explicit of the problem of IPD accumulated under the pay-as-you-go finance mode. Whether the pension system transition is successful is closely related to the accurately accounted IPD amount and rationally solved scheme. China has reformed its pension system since 1990’s and established part fund accumulation finance mode. And this means China also faces the problem of IPD with no exception.This thesis uses econometrics, statistics, demography and insurance actuarial accounting theories to examine the issue of explicit and emphasizes the combination of qualitative versus quantitative analysis and captive versus dynamic analysis. Supported by the pension theory, this thesis analyzes theoretically the root cause, character and structure of the IPD explicit, meanwhile, based on the actuarial accounting theories, it simulates the dynamic process of explicit. It also uses population data, macroeconomic data and others to calculate the feasibility of modes of compensation and concludes the combined scheme of installment payment for the explicit sector of the IPD.This paper is organized logically by Preface, Qualitative Analysis on the Explicit Process, Quantitative Analysis on the Explicit Process, Absorbability of the Explicit Sector and Conclusion.更多还原