【作者】 熊菲；

【导师】 乔桂明；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 一直以来,由于美元在国际货币体系中的霸主地位,作为国际贸易最重要的组成部分,石油贸易大多以美元计价和结算。但形成于布雷顿森林体系下的“特里芬悖论”已经揭示了这种以单一国别货币充当国际货币所存在的巨大风险,这种风险最终导致了布雷顿森林体系的崩溃。种种迹象显示,近年来在以美元为主的石油计价体系中也越来越凸显出类似“特里芬悖论”的矛盾,与此同时欧元却以其优异的表现不断博得国际社会的青睐,使得在石油计价货币领域中以欧元取代美元的呼声和行动此起彼伏。本文从介绍石油美元计价体系的形成历史出发,通过深入研究新的国际环境下“新特里芬悖论”对于石油计价体系所带来的影响,揭示了石油计价体系未来可能的变革趋势,并通过博弈论及数学模型的方法从两个方面剖析这种变革发生的现实可能性,最终针对这种可能性,结合我国实际情况提出深化我国外汇储备体制改革等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the most important part of international trade, the counting currency of petroleum trade is always using US dollar because of the hegemony role of Dollar in international monetary system. But“Triffin Dilemma”that emerges from Bretton Woods has revealed the high risk of using single national currency as international currency, which caused the collapse of Bretton Woods. Some evidences show that, the Petrodollar system has also appeared the contradiction like“Triffin Dilemma”in recent years, and in the meanwhile, the Euro gains more and more favor because of its’good performance. So there are more and more voices and behaviors the Euro taking place of the Dollar as the counting currency of petroleum trade.Starting from the history of petrodollar system, this paper researches the influence of“New Triffin Dilemma”upon the petro-currency system in the new international condition, and reveals the develop trend of this system. It also analyses the practical possibility of this trend through game theory and mathematical model. At last, this paper gives some advices according to our country’s reality, such as deepening our policy reformation in foreign exchange reserve and so on.更多还原