论独联体国家的“颜色革命”

【作者】 孙启军；

【导师】 程玉海；

【作者基本信息】 聊城大学 ， 国际政治， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在阐明独联体的由来与现状的基础上,首先,从格鲁吉亚的“玫瑰革命”、乌克兰的“橙色革命”和吉尔吉斯斯坦的“黄色革命”入手,仔细探讨了“颜色革命”的模式与特点,认真分析了它爆发的背景与成因,深刻揭示了它的实质目标;然后,明确点破了它的性质,系统论述了它对国际政治的冲击与影响,具体总结了它给予的启示与我们的对策;最后,尝试预测了它的前景与未来走势。纵观“一场风暴、三国革命”的“色变”过程,可以发现:“颜色革命”基本上遵循着“三个阶段、一个结果”的大体模式,即经过“准备、开始、相持”三个阶段和最终实现“反对派获胜”一个结果。同时,具有一个显著特征:反对派在西方势力支持下,借选举之机,用和平方式夺权执政。这一大特征有四点体现:国家政治选举是焦点平台;和平、非暴力式街头政治是主要斗争形式;里应外合是成功的关键;“西化”是核心。“颜色革命”的爆发有着深刻的背景与原因,其中,国家在转型过程中,民主化进程落后于经济市场化条件下社会发展的客观要求是其根本原因。根本原因的构成,不仅具有深厚的国内政治、经济、社会、外交、历史文化和思想意识背景,还具有美国推波助澜的外部条件。可以说,“颜色革命”是国内的各种矛盾激化到临界极限,政治派别斗争到势均力敌,“疏俄亲美”与“亲俄系俄”路线争论到拔剑相持,“融入欧美”与“苏联情结”思想矛盾到难以抉择,西方民主扩展到一定时机,最终全部汇集到根本矛盾上,借助“国家换届选举”契机平台,将内外的不满与期望、矛盾与斗争统统引发和点燃的必然结果。从表面上看,“颜色革命”的目标是反对派为争取民主,推翻当权派上台执政。事实上,它的实质目标是“脱俄西进”。“脱俄西进”的产生具有两个历史背景:原苏联的国家体制为其产生埋下了历史的伏笔和未来的借口;独联体松散的体制与特殊的性质很容易诱发“脱俄西进”。分析“脱俄西进”的早期倾向和现实表现,发现“颜色革命”是其萌芽与发展的分界线。“革命”前,这些国家实行一种与东西方等距离的外交政策,没有明目张胆地喊出“脱俄”的口号,但“西进”的倾向已经萌芽。“革命”后,格鲁吉亚和乌克兰等国被一批亲西方政治精英上台掌控,明确提出了“入约加盟”的外交路线,成为“脱俄西进”的急先锋与领头羊;并复活壮大了“脱俄西进”的总部——“古阿姆”,公开扛起“脱俄大旗”,积极推动“西进”进程。“脱俄西进”的产生是历史与客观的必然,因为:独联体各国难以找到合适的发展定位;难以建立共同的利益基础;难以形成经济发展的合力;难以接受俄罗斯的绝对领导;难以阻止外部力量的介入。关于“颜色革命”的性质问题,学术界众说纷纭,目前没有统一的权威定论。笔者通过认真分析国内外专家学者的观点,仔细研究“颜色革命”的过程、特点与成因,结合“革命”的实质目标,根据马克思主义原理,认为:“颜色革命”既不是传统意义上的革命,也不是真正意义上的社会革命;归根结底是独联体国家以“脱俄西进”为实质目标的一次内部政权更替。“颜色革命”必然给当代国际政治、国际关系带来一定的冲击与影响:从独联体层面看,“革命”浪潮余波未平,加速了独联体地区的地缘政治分化,使独联体的生存受到严峻挑战;对俄罗斯的传统安全政策形成了有力冲击,促使俄罗斯实行更加务实的新独联体政策。从地缘政治层面看,它进一步改变了欧亚地区地缘政治版图及其区域分野,“后苏联空间”作为一个地缘政治整体正在被打破并被重新分割组合。从上海合作组织层面看,它使上海合作组织进入了成立以来最具凝聚力的时期,并将其作为抵御“颜色革命”的主要平台。从大国关系层面看,它在引发新的战略争夺,激化大国矛盾的同时,使美、俄、中三国关系在中亚地区得到重新平衡。从中国层面看,它给中国的周边环境和战略空间带来了严峻挑战,对中国的国家安全利益、地缘战略利益和能源战略利益构成了一定威胁。从国际格局层面看,它使本已失衡的国际格局进一步向以美国为首的西方倾斜,大大延缓了建设“和谐世界”的进程。面对“颜色革命”浪潮,我们必须未雨绸缪,找准对策:坚持“三个代表”重要思想地位不动摇,努力提高党的执政能力和驾驭全局的水平;全面落实科学发展观,促进经济持续健康协调发展,努力构建社会主义和谐社会;坚持走和平崛起的新道路,努力实现中华民族的伟大复兴;发挥我国的大国作用,极力倡导构建“和谐世界”体系。最后,可以预见,由于独联体国家政局不稳,不排除“颜色革命”有进一步蔓延的可能;但今后马上产生“颜色革命”多米诺骨牌效应的可能性不会太大。同时看到,有着深厚西方背景的“颜色革命”并没有最终划上句号,这不过是一场时间跨度很长的大争斗中的一个回合而已,更多、更激烈的较量应该还在后头。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper based on the origin of CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States)starts from Georgia’s“rose revolution”, Ukraine’s“orange revolution”, and Kirghizstan’s“yellow revolution”, carefully discusses the general mode and the main features of the“color revolution”, analyses the background and reasons and profoundly reveals its actual aims; then, this paper clearly points out the essence of the“Color Revolution”, systematically describes its impact and influence on the international politics, and briefly sums up the revelation and strategies that it gives to China; finally it tries to predict the future prospects of the CIS.It can be found from the color-changing process of“one storm, three revolutions”that“Color Revolution”generally follows the general pattern of“three phases, a result”—preparation, start, stalemate and the success of the opposition fraction. Meanwhile, there is an obvious characteristic: taking the opportunity of election, backed up by the West the opposition fraction seized the power by peace. This characteristic is reflected in the following aspects: the national political election is the platform; peace and non-violent street politics is the main struggling form; acting from inside in coordination with forces from outside is the key point; westernization is the core.The outbreak of“Color Revolution”was due to deep background and reasons, of which in the process of the transition of the state, the basic reason was that democracy fell behind the need of social development in the marked-oriented economy condition. There was not only the profound internal political, economic, social, diplomatic, historical and ideological background, but also the external help from the United States. The“Color Revolution”is the inevitable result because domestic conflicts intensified; the struggle of political fractions was evenly balanced; the dispute between“pro-American”and“pro-Russian”was intense; it’s difficult to chose between“integrating with the West”and“Soviet Union complex”; the western democracy expanded and finally made use of the national election as a platform to cause the internal and external dissatisfaction and contradiction.On the surface, the“Color Revolution”aimed at struggling for democracy and power.In fact, its actual aim is“leaving Soviet Union and approaching the West”. There were two backgrounds: the state system of the former Soviet Union laid the foundation for it; the loose system and the special nature of CIS could easily lead to“leaving Soviet Union and approaching the West”. The“Color Revolution”was the divide of rudiment and development on the basis of the early tendency and manifestation of“leaving Soviet Union and approaching the west”. Before the revolution, these states maintained equal relationship between the East and the West, and they did not boldly shout the slogan of“leaving Soviet Union”, but the tendency of“approaching the West”was in the bud. After the revolution, Ukraine and Georgia and some other countries were controlled by a group of pro-west elites, who clearly put forward the diplomatic line of“joining NATO and EU”, and became the pioneer of“leaving Soviet Union and approaching the West”. They revived and expanded the headquarter of“leaving Soviet Union and approaching the west”—GUUAM, and actively pushed the process of“approaching the West”.“Leaving Soviet Union and approaching the West”was historically inevitable because it’s hard for the members of CIS to find suitable developmental position, to establish common interest basis, to form the economic resultant force, to be in the absolute lead of Russia and to resist the external forces.With regard to the nature of“Color Revolution”, various views exist and no agreement is reached among the academia. Through an analysis of domestic and foreign scholars’views and a detailed research of the process, characteristics and causes of“Color Revolution”, a conclusion is drawn on the basis of Marxist principles:“Color Revolution”is neither a traditional revolution, nor a social revolution in its original sense, but in the final analysis a interior replacement of regimes within CIS aiming at“leaving Russia and approaching the West”.“Color Revolution”is bound to cast great impact on contemporary international politics and international relationships. Concerning CIS, it accelerates the geopolitical disintegration within CIS, challenging the existence of CIS, and casts strong impact on traditional Russian security policies, urging Russia to implement more practical new policies towards CIS. Concerning geopolitics, it further changes the geopolitical territory and division in Europe and Asia, breaking and restructuring“Post-Soviet Russia Space”as a geopolitical integration. Concerning Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it makes Shanghai Cooperation Organization step into its most solid period as the main platform resisting“Color Revolution”. Concerning relationship between great powers, it is provoking new strategic contests and intensifying conflicts between great powers, at the same time rebalancing the relationship between US, Russia, and China in central Asia. Concerning China, it severely challenges the surroundings and strategic space of China, to some extent threatening China’s interests in national security, geopolitical strategy and energy strategy. Concerning international structure, it makes the tilted balance lean further toward western world represented by the United States, slowing down the process of establishing“harmonious world”.In the face of“Color Revolution”, we must make preparation in advance and find out countermeasures: adhere to the important status of“Three Representations”thought, improve with effort the Party’s executive and overall controlling competence, put into effect the scientific development theory, promote the sustainable, healthy and harmonious economic development, construct socialist harmonious society, stick to the route of peaceful rising, realize the great renaissance of Chinese people, exert China’s function as a great power and advocate constructing“harmonious world”system.On all accounts, it can be forecast that, as a result of the unstable situation within CIS,“Color Revolution”is possible to spread to a larger extent, but it’s not likely to have an immediate“domino effect”. At the same time, with its profound western background,“Color Revolution”has not come to an end. It is just a single round of a long lasting combat and frequent, fierce engagements will follow.更多还原