【作者】 游杰；

【导师】 李华；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 发酵工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究以中国气象局气象信息中心资料室提供的气象资料长度大于45年的504个气象站点的气象资料(1959年～2000年)为材料,统计平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量等数据,并依此计算了无霜期(FFP)、初霜日(FFD)、终霜日(LFD)、生长期长度(GSL)、有效积温(∑ET)、年极端高低温和干燥度(DI)等指标,分析了过去45年我国气候变化概况及由气候变化引起的无霜期、初终霜日、生长期长度、有效积温、年极端高低温和干燥度及生长期温度的变化对我国酿酒葡萄栽培的影响,用Arcgis软件做图,直观的反映气候变化的影响,并在对气候变化对我国葡萄栽培影响分析的基础上,对我国酿酒葡萄栽培的发展提出了建议和对策。1.过去45年年平均气温、年最高气温、年最低气温都出现上升,60年代部分地区(如内蒙古中部)温度较高,温度高于70年代,90年代温度变化最为剧烈,各个温度指标都达到最大值。我国降水呈现出南多北少,东多西少的分布格局,在过去40年间我国的降水变化并没有明显的规律。70年代和90年代是蒸散(ETO)增加较明显的时期,而60年代和80年代,ETO的减少量较大,并且ETO的变化呈现出10年期波动。对我国的干湿变化进行10年期分析后得出我国干湿变化也呈现出显著的10年期波动特点。2.在近45年内,特别是在80年代以后,我国的无霜期显著变长,葡萄生长期增长,终霜日提前,春季遭受霜冻的可能更小,初霜日推迟,利于葡萄枝条积累养分,提高抗寒能力,并且终霜日的变化大于初霜日的变化,埋土防寒线明显北移,需要进行冬季埋土防寒的区域明显减少。我国酿酒葡萄的主要分布区西北东部、西北西部、华北地区和东北地区无霜期变化绝对值分别达到9d、8.5d、10d和13d,其变化足以影响到适宜栽培的酿酒葡萄品种类型。我国无霜期的变化明显受到我国阶梯形地貌的影响,在同一地理阶梯内霜冻指标的影响范围大,但是在阶梯抬升地区无霜期的变化更为显著,因此在地貌抬升区域种植葡萄更容易受到气候变化的影响。基于现有的无霜期变率对50年后我国葡萄种植区域进行预测,50年后我国北部除少数地区以外,都能够种植酿酒葡萄。3.近40年不同梯度生长期平均温度和最高温度在60年代部分地区较高,70年代较低,然后逐渐上升,在90年代达到最大值;而生长期最低温度则呈连续的剧烈变化。对≥30℃和≥35℃极限高温变化的研究表明,在60年代和90年代≥30℃区域分布较广,70年代≥30℃分布逐渐减少,在80年代达到最小值,在90年代达到最大值。在90年代以前,我国的主要酿酒葡萄产区除了新疆和黄河故道产区以及内蒙乌海及甘肃酒泉以外,鲜有≥35℃的情况出现,到90年代,我国北部部分产区出现≥35℃分布。4.在过去40年里,我国生长期长度呈持续的增长,东北地区、华北地区、西北东西和西北西部地区在近40年内的变化绝对值分别达到7.4d、4.3d、6.6d和5.4d,各区生长期长度增加最为明显的时期是90年代。在60-70年代,我国的生长季>10℃有效积温区域变化不大,与研究的别的气候指标相似,90年代是近40年有效积温变化最为剧烈的一段时期,在各大区中,近40年生长季>10℃有效积温东北区域和西北东部区域的生长期有效积温增长量最大,分别达156.1℃和167.9℃,而华北地区,和西北西部地区有效积温增加量较小,分别为135.2℃和97.2℃。5.相对于无霜期,干燥度的变化幅度不大,并呈现出明显的10年期波动。近40年我国适宜酿酒葡萄栽培的面积不断向北扩大,相对于干燥度的变化,我国酿酒葡萄区域变化更多的受到的是无霜期变化的影响。气候变化对我国酿酒葡萄生产的影响具有双重性,既有有利的一面,也有不利的地方,具体影响表现在两方面:(1)气候变化引起气温上升,使得一些现有产区适宜采用的酿酒葡萄品种发生变化,这对酿酒葡萄生产的可持续发展不利;(2)气候变暖使得我国北部适宜种植酿酒葡萄的地区不断扩大,在适宜种植区在北界地区不断出现的情况下,很可能出现一些潜在的优质酿酒葡萄生产区,这对于提高我国葡萄酒质量,优化葡萄酒产业布局都有很重大的意义。由于气候变化引起埋土防寒线的变化和葡萄物候期的变化,在埋土防寒线北移和气温变暖的过程中各葡萄园应加强对年最低温度的检测,适当调整葡萄年作时间表,以降低葡萄酒生产成本。由于高品质的葡萄酒都出产于葡萄品种所能生长的最北界地区,葡萄栽培北界北移给我国葡萄酒企业提供了很好选择优良葡萄新产区的机会,在充分考虑土壤、水分供应的情况下可以在适当地块选址建园。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on climatic data collected from 504 weather stations belonging to the Climatic Information Centre of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 1959 to 2003, daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and daily moisture capacity were used to calculate frost free period (FFP), first frost day (FFD)and last frost day (LFD), growing season length (GSL), effective accumulated temperature (∑ET), annual extreme temperature, dryness index (DI) during the last 45 years. Based on these indexes, the effect of climate change was analyzed using Arcgis software. Some suggestions were also made about how to respond to the effects of climate change.Annual average temperature, annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature increased during the last 45 years, The 1960s was a period of high temperature (higher than Inner Mongolia in the 1970s), and these temperature indexes changed most fiercely in 1990s and reached their maximum values. The distribution of precipitation in China showing the tendency of more precipitation in south fewer in north and more in east fewer in west, but there were no distinct clues of variation during the last 40 years. Evapotranspiration (ETO) varied in 10 year cycles, increased in the 1970s and the 1990s but declined in 1960s and 1980s. The variation of moisture index of China was also studied. The result showed us it’s fluctuated in 10 years cycles.In recent 45 years, especially after the 1980s, the FFP increased significantly. The growing season was lengthened, the LFD was advanced, the probability suffered from spring frost injury decreased, the FFD was delayed, which could result in the accumulation of nutrients in shoots and furthermore improve the capacity of the vines to live through winter. The variations of LFD were larger than those of FFD. The bury line moved northwards. The areas where the vines need to be buried shrank. FFP in eastern northwest china, western northwest china, northern china and northeast china, where hold most of Chinese wine regions, increased 9d, 8.5d, 10d and 13d respectively. This could change the suitability of Chinese viticulture. The variation of frost indexes was influenced by the steppe-terrain of China, in the same step, the area suffered from frost indexes change was wider, but in the areas where the step rose, the change of those frost indexes were more significant. Based on the changes in FFP during the last 45years, a forecast for FFP in the next 50 years was made. The results showed that most areas of China will be viticulturable, except for a handful of areas in northern China.3. The average growing season temperature and maximum growing season temperature were higher in the 1960s, compared to the 1970s in some area. After dropping in the 1970s, they increased gradually and reached their highest point in the 1990s. At the same time, the growing season minimum temperature increased steadily and significantly from the 1960s to the 1990s. The study on extreme temperatures showed that areas hotter than 30℃were wildly distributed in the 1960s, shank in the 1970s, and reached its lowest point in the 1980s, but it quickly reached its highest point as temperature rose in the 1990s. Before the 1990s the occurrence temperature hotter than 35℃was rare except in Xingjiang Province, the Former Huanhe river Region, Wuhai in Inner Mongolia and Jiuquan in Gansu Province, but those 35℃events appeared in 1990s in many grape-growing regions.The GSL of China consistently increased during the last 45 years, GSL in eastern northwest china, western northwest china, northern china and northeast china increased 7.4d, 4.3d, 6.6d and 5.4d respectively. The GSL increased most significantly in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s, the variation of 10℃based∑ET in growing season was not significant, similar to the other indexes researched in this paper, the 1990s was the most variable decade for 10℃based∑ET,∑ET increased 156.1℃, 167.9℃, 135.2℃and 97.2℃respectively in the northeast china, eastern northwest china, northeast china and western northwest china.Compared to FFP, the variation of DI was not significant, and with fluctuation of 10 years. The viticultable areas of China constantly enlarged northwards, and compared with DI, FFP played a main role in the enlargement.Climate change is a double blade sword for Chinese viticulture. As temperature increases, some of the varieties currently planted would no longer suitable for use. This is disadvantageous to the sustainable development of Chinese viticulture. As temperature increass, areas suitable for viticulture in northern China will expand. There would be many potential high quality wine regions among them, which has great potential for improving Chinese wine quality and optimizing wine industry layout. As the climate changes, the phenological phase of grapevine and bury line also change. The vineyards should note the changes in these two indexes and change their annual vineyard program to decrease the cost of grapevine production. Because most high quality wines are producted in the northern viticulturable point, the northward movements of viticulturable area provides the opportunity to choose high quality wine regions, with full consideration of soil type and water supply.更多还原