外商直接投资对辽宁省经济增长的效应研究

【作者】 宋佳；

【导师】 冯力；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国际分工日益深入，经济全球化的快速发展，对外开放对一国经济发展具有越来越重要的意义，而外商直接投资(FDI)在一个国家或地区的对外经济联系中扮演越来越重要的角色。辽宁老工业基地振兴必须走全面开放的新路子即实现辽宁老工业基地的经济发展和振兴，引进和利用外资具有重要意义。在经济全球化和贸易自由化的大背景下，伴随着振兴东北老工业基地政策的逐步推进，研究辽宁省外商直接投资对经济增长的贡献，以期实现辽宁老工业基地的再次腾飞，具有极其重要的理论和实践意义。本文采用理论分析与实证研究相结合，历史与逻辑相结合的方法，从不同角度，不同层面研究辽宁吸引外商直接投资的经济效果。首先介绍了与东道国外商直接投资相关的经济增长理论，对经济增长理论进行归纳比较，并在此基础上回顾了国内外相关研究，构造出本文的理论框架。然后概述辽宁省吸引外商直接投资的发展阶段和基本现状，在此基础上分析了外商直接投资对国内生产总值的增长、资本形成效应和技术外溢效应。在以上外商直接投资结构特征分析的基础上，结合已有理论研究成果，分别吸收和借鉴有效的实证分析方法。通过分析得出以下结论：(1)采用协整分析方法(Co-integration)和误差修正模型(ECM)表明外商直接投资与GDP构成稳定的长期均衡关系，外商直接投资促进了经济增长，Granger检验它们之间存在双向因果关系。(2)根据Manuel和Ricardo建立的测定外商直接投资对国内投资的挤入挤出效应计量模型，得出外商直接投资很大程度上挤入国内投资，辽宁的外商直接投资的引入并没有过度，有很大的发挥空间。(3)通过外商直接投资内生技术进步的增长模型即传统的Cobb—Douglas生产函数测定的外商直接投资对辽宁省的技术进步影响效果，外商直接投资对辽宁省的技术进步存在正向外溢效应，但是这种效应的程度不大。最后，基于以上研究结论，本文最后提出了促进辽宁老工业基地合理引进和利用外商直接投资，加快该地区经济发展的相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of international labor division and fast development of economic globalization, opening up to the outside world is more and more important for a country’s economy and FDI is playing a more and more important role in its extrovert economy. Always industrial base vigorously must go to all-sided open new way, Introduction and utilization of FDI has an important meaning for pushing forward the economic development and revival of Liaoning old industrial bases. Therefore, under the circumstances of economic globalization and investment liberalization, studying the relationship between FDI and the economic growth of Liaoning Province with the policy of old industrial base development, so as to empty out again in Liaoning old industrial base will have an important theory and practice significance.This paper combines the theoretical analysis with the empirical studies, history with logic to study the economic effects of importing FDI. On the basis of reviewing correlative research, this paper introduces the theory of economic growth on Amphitryon’ FDI and compared the various economic theories, we construct the theoretical framework of this paper. Then, it hits high spots on development phases and basal state of Liaoning’s FDI, and analyses increasing GDP, capital accumulating effect and the spillover effect of FDI on economic development. Basing on analysis of FDI structure features, and combining with existing research results, the thesis absorbs and applies effective positivist research methods. The conclusions are as follows:(1) Using the method of cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) to have the data analysis, test FDI and GDP have formed a stable long-term balance, FDI inflows on GDP growth, and exists two-sides Granger causality.(2)Basing on econometric model of FDI on domestic investment from Manuel and Ricardo, the results indicate that in Liaoing there has been strong crowding in domestic investment by FDI, therefore, we should continue to allure FDI to increase capital.(3)Via traditional Cobb—Douglas production function to assess technology progress effects of importing FDI, The empirical results indicate that FDI of Liaoning has played the positive spillovers effect to technology progress, but the effect is not as good as we expect.Finally, based above analysis, some useful suggestions are given to absorbing foreign capital and promoting the development of the Liaoning Province.更多还原