【作者】 李青阳；

【导师】 许和连；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文从湖南省出口贸易的宏观表现着手,分别从贸易总量、贸易结构和贸易方式等方面对湖南省的出口贸易变化情况进行综合分析,然后从国际、国内和不确定因素方面对湖南省出口贸易影响因素进行了理论分析。在理论分析的基础上,对湖南省出口贸易及其影响因素之间的关系进行分析。以1985-2005年度的统计数据为依据,运用协整分析、向量自回归和误差修正模型等方法,对湖南省的出口贸易影响因素进行了实证研究。实证研究表明,湖南省出口贸易和其生产总值、进口、科技投入及外商直接投资之间存在长期协整关系,并且进口的变动和GDP的增长对出口影响程度很大,但外商直接投资和科技投入对出口的影响是反向的。和理论分析上认识不同的是,人民币实际有效汇率、世界经济增长率和世界出口价格指数对出口贸易的影响不显著。针对这种现象,本文做出了合理的经济解释。最后,从宏观、中观和微观三个层面为湖南省未来出口贸易的发展提出了合理的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper begins from the macroscopic performance of Hunan Province export trade, especially makes a general analysis to Hunan Province’s export trade changed situation separately from some aspects such as trade total quantity, trade structure and trade way etc. And then makes a theoretical analysis to the influence factor of Hunan Province export trade from the international aspect, the domestic aspect and the uncertainty aspect.After analyzing in the theory, we begin to study developing conditions and its’ relevant factors of Hunan province’s export. At first, it does the empirical analysis on relevant factors of Hunan province’s export by using the econometric methods such as co-integration and vector auto regression on the 1985-2005 data. The empirical analysis results show that there are long term co-integration relations among the export, gross domestic production (GDP), import (IM), investment in research and development (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI) of Hunan province. The determinants of Hunan province’s export are the following main factors including IM, and GDP. The FDI and R&D have affect on the developing of export in the opposite direction. The real efficient exchange rate of RMB, the world economic growth rate, and the world export price index have no clear relations with the export. To this phenomenon, this paper gives some reasonable economic explanations.Finally this paper raises some basic policy proposals for inducing higher and healthier exports on the macroscopic ,intermediate and microcosmic levels.更多还原