水电厂发电报价技术支持系统研究

【作者】 杨华；

【导师】 周杰娜；

【作者基本信息】 贵州大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 发电报价技术支持系统是一套可以用来分析市场可利用信息，并结合发电公司和机组运行特点及其成本分析，能为电厂竞价上网做出规避风险，获取最大经济效益的辅助决策系统体系。论文首先对电力生产辅助模块中的水电站水库径流预测与最优运行调度进行探讨，主要围绕讨论水电站水库日径流预测的数学模型，并对各种模型进行效果分析比较；在进行径流预测的基础上，分析了单一水电站日优化运行调度和梯级水电站日优化运行调度的相应模型。然后对发电厂的成本进行了分析，阐述了发电厂成本计算的两种方法，以发电厂生产成本分析为基础，讨论了水电厂上网结算电价的预测模型，该模型是基于单一市场情况下的随机电价模型基础上，并运用几何布朗运动理论构造了电价模型。在探讨边际电价预测中，本文阐述了应用线性移动自回归模型，对次日96点实时边际电价进行预测的方法，最后引用算例进行了检验。另外，分析了水电厂按成本分析进行报价、基于市场出清电价等报价策略，尤其探讨了发电公司报价策略的风险问题，采用风险型决策方法，并利用效用理论来解决风险型决策问题，得出利用效用理论来解决风险型决策问题的主要步骤；探讨了一种基于效用的发电公司最优风险报价策略模型，并以此为基础采用“效点间距离对分法”构造发电公司最优报价策略的效用函数模型，并引用具体的算例对模型进行了检验。最后，对水电厂发电报价技术支持系统的整体框架和各模块功能作了阐述。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hydropower Plant bidding price technology supporting system is a system that can be used for analyzing the usable information for market combining with the characteristics and cost analysis of power electrical company and crew operation and evade risk for the power station bidding price on the intemet and it is an assistant decision system obtaining the greatest economic benefits.The thesis firstly does research on water electricity station reservoir path flows estimate and the superior running despatch in the power product assistant models, mainly discusses the math model of estimate of day path to flow of a water electricity station reservoir and compares and analyzes the results of all kinds of models; it analyzes the relative model of single water electricity station running and despatching per day and an electric water steps station running and despatching per day based on the path flows estimate. Then this thesis carries on analysis of the cost of the power plant, elaborates two kinds of methods of power plant costing, and based on the analysis of power plant product cost, discusses the estimate model of settling accounts of giving or getting an electric shock the price on the Internet for water power station, which is based on the single market circumstance of random electricity price model foundation, and makes use of several theories of geometry Browns movements to build up the electricity price model. During studying the limit electricity price estimation, this thesis analyzes using line ambulation from returning to return model to estimate real-time limit electricity the price to the next day 96, finally, quotes calculation examples to carry on elucidation, furthermore, analyzes water power station to press cost analysis to carry on offer and the quote strategy based on the market’s pure electricity price, etc., especially, investigates the problem of the superior risk bidding strategy which uses the risk decision method, makes use of effective theory to solve the problems of risk decision, obtains the main steps of using effective theory to solve the problems of risk decision-making, sets up a model on the basis of effective power plant superior risk bidding strategy tactics mode, uses "effect point distance bisection method" to construct the effect function model of superior bidding strategy for generates electricity company and quotes the concrete arithmetic example to test the model. At the end, it makes the discussion on the whole framework and all model functions of the hydropower plant price bidding technique supporting system.更多还原