【作者】 雷小平；

【导师】 赵明；

【作者基本信息】 贵州大学 ， 应用数学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 为了满足市场激烈的竞争，使产品尽快进入市场，以及满足顾客的高期望，产品必须做得更稳健，因此在短的时间内几乎观察不到失效。在这种情况下，利用高应力水平下的退化数据评估产品可靠性变得很有必要。这种评估可通过加速退化测试来完成。这些试验包括取代测试产品寿命而只测试产品性能随时间退化的过应力测试。随着工程和科学技术的发展，许多现代产品比过去有更长的寿命和更高的可靠性。这样，寿命测量和退化测量要比过去花费更多的时间。因此，在正常贮存条件下观察失效时间甚至是退化测量十分困难。在这项研究中，从实际工程背景和问题出发，基于具有贮存初始失效的系统贮存可靠性模型，R（t）=P（T≥t|T＞0）P（T＞0）=R₀R_s（t），t≥0，应用加速退化试验，加快参数漂移过程，外推加速失效规律，并结合退化数据和外推的失效数据，建立系统贮存可靠性理论模型，对系统的贮存可靠性进行预测。本论文的主要研究目的是发展推断程序来外推系统在正常条件下的贮存可靠性，该方法利用加速退化数据而不必观察实际失效数据。虽然在加速退化试验中不需要物理失效，但是通常定义退化过程超过预定的失效判据的首达时间为失效，以便退化路径与产品可靠性相联系。为了模型化系统随时间的退化，并且做出失效的推断，我们假设了一个具有漂移ν_L=ζe^θ/L的阿伦纽斯规律的高斯过程来模型化在一个加速退化试验中带有失效数据的退化。更多还原

【Abstract】 To meet increasing competition, get products to market in the shortest possible time, and satisfy heightened customer expectations, products must be made more robust and fewer failures must be observed in a short development period. In this circumstance, assessing product reliability based on degradation data at high stress levels becomes necessary. This assessment is accomplished through accelerated degradation tests （ADT）. These tests involve over stress testing in which instead of life product performance is measured as it degrades over time.With the development of engineering and science technology, many modern products have longer lifetimes and greater reliability than those in the past. Thus, lifetime measurements and degradation measurements take much more time than they used to. It is therefore difficult to observe failure times, or even degradation measurements, under normal storage conditions.In this research, starting from the practical backgrounds and problems of engineering, based on the system storage reliability model with storage initial failure, R（t） = P（T≥t|T>0）P（T>0） = R₀R_s（t）,t≥0 , we establish anacademic system storage reliability model incorporating the degradation date and the failure date extrapolated by accelerated failure laws from accelerated degradation test（ADT） which quicken the process of parameter drifting to estimate the system storage reliability.The primary objective for this research is to develop the inference procedures for extrapolation the storage reliability of system in normal conditions based on ADT data without the need of observing actual failures. Although physical failures are not needed in ADT, one usually defines failure as the first time when the degradation process exceeds a pre-specified threshold, so that the degradation path can be correlated to product reliability. In order to model such degradation over time and make inference about thefailure, we assume a the Arrhenius law Gaussian process model with driftv_L=ζe^θ/L for degradation combined with failure data in an accelerateddegradation testing.更多还原