改革开放以来中国货币政策效应研究

【作者】 贺强；

【导师】 杨闻军；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 国民经济学， 2007， 硕士

【副题名】基于货币供求的实证分析

【摘要】 1984年人民银行正式成立以来，开始履行中央银行对宏观经济的调控功能，标志着我国的中央银行体制的正式确立。在这之后财政政策在宏观经济中的调控作用逐渐弱化，货币政策逐步成为我国宏观经济调控的主要手段，甚至在1998年以前出现货币政策“独挑大梁”的局面。从实践上来看，我国货币政策的使用经历几次较为大的波折。无论是对通货膨胀的控制，还是通货紧缩时期对经济的刺激，虽然都起到了一定的作用，但是过程与结果并不是很理想。因此有必要对货币政策的效应以及影响因素做一些分析。货币政策作为宏观经调控的主要手段，对其进行研究的出发点甚多。本文将主要从货币的供求来对货币政策的效应及其影响因素进行分析，其原因在于货币供求是货币政策制定与实施的最基本的两个层面，货币政策的实施基本出发点不外乎对货币供给的控制和对货币需求的影响。基于此本文将采用实证的方法对改革开放以来，特别是1984年中国人民银行成立以来的宏观数据进行分析。本文主要内容包括，对西方成熟的货币供求理论进行回顾，然后在此基础上，采用现代计量方法(主要包括协整理论、误差修正机制等)建立我国的长短期货币需求模型，分析得到影响我国货币需求的主要因素，进而分析这些影响因素对货币政策效应的影响；在货币供给方面，主要从货币供给内生性出发，通过计量方法的使用(格兰杰检验、向量自回归，方差分解等)和对货币乘数的数量研究，证明我国的货币供给具有一定的内生性，在此基础上分析货币供给内生性对货币政策效应的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deep development of the open and reform and the unceasing improvement of marketing level, and since China established the system of Central Bank in 1984, the monetary policy as a regulation method plays a more and more important role in the stable development of economy. Even monetary policy is becoming the main means of China for adjusting and controlling macroeconomy. But during the practice of monetary policy following the reform and opening-up, sometimes monetary policy didn’t gain expected effect, which makes people suspect on the effect of the monetary policy. Therefore it has the necessity makes some analyses on the effect of monetary policy as well as the influence factor.Money demand and money supply are the foundation of the monetary policy. Controlling the supply of money and Influencing the demand of money is the main Operating goal. So this article focuses on the demand and supply of money, aiming at the effect of monetary policy.The thesis first briefly introduces the theories on the effectiveness of monetary policy and the theories of money demand and supply. What follows is to use modern econometric method to establish the money demand model, and then use the model to analyze the factor influencing the monetary policy. At the aspect of the money demand, it is to use econometric method and money multiplicator to analyze the endogenous of money supply, basing which we study the influence on the monetary policy effect.更多还原