【作者】 杨祥；

【导师】 冯桂宏；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳工业大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 中长期电力负荷预测是城市电网规划中的基础性工作，也是电力系统安全经济运行的前提，其预测精度的高低直接影响到城市电网规划质量的优劣。同时，它也是一项复杂而繁琐的工作，不确定性因素较多，而且涉及领域广泛。因此，开发一套高效、实用的城市电网中长期电力负荷预测系统软件、提高中长期电力负荷预测精度一直是电力科研工作者关注的热点问题。目前，传统的预测方法有诸多弊端，如所需历史数据多、预测精度低等，已逐渐不能被广泛接受。相反，所需历史数据少、参数预测精度高的灰色预测法成为负荷预测的新趋势。本文在分析研究了中长期电力负荷的预测算法的基础上，提出了一种具备高精度的组合预测模型，并在此基础上编制了城市电网中长期电力负荷预测系统软件。鉴于中长期电力负荷同时具有增长性和波动性的二重趋势，本文分析了基本灰色模型及其几种传统改进模型在电力负荷预测中的局限性，在此基础上提出了一种中长期负荷预测的实用新方法——基于组合优化灰色模型的二次组合模型。该模型由两部分组成，一部分是由残差灰色预测模型与等维新息灰色预测模型组合而成，另一部分由线性回归分析模型组成。残差灰色预测模型具有拟合波动性负荷的能力，等维新息灰色模型可达到降低运算复杂性和提高预测精度的作用，线性回归分析模型可以将影响电力负荷的各种因素考虑进来以增加预测模型的精度。该组合法能够可靠预测模型参数，满足动态电力负荷要求且能解决随机干扰的影响。因此可作为中长期电力负荷预测的实用工具之一。本文针对电力部门的实际需要，开发了一套实用的城市电网中长期电力负荷预测软件。文中以一实际电网的历史数据进行了验证性计算，预测结果表明该系统预测误差基本可控制在3％以内，能够满足城市电网规划中的电力负荷预测的需要，预测结果较合理，界面友好、操作方便，在很大程度上可以提高预测人员的劳动效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Medium and long term load forecasting, as a fundamental item of the urban power system planning and a precondition of safe operation of power system, whose accuracy has great influence on the quality of power system planning, is a complicated project overloaded with details, especially having excessive uncertainty and involving extensive domain. How to design an effective and applicable medium and long term load forecasting software system for urban power networks attracts a lot of concern of electric operators. Nowadays, conventional methods, which have some deficiencies, for example, needing more historical data and having low precision of forecasting results, haven’t been accepted gradually. In contrast, grey model (GM), which needs less historical data and has fine precision of parameters estimation, becomes more and more current. The algorithms of medium and long term load forecasting system for urban power networks are studied, a combined optimum model with high precision is put forward, and the forecasting software is programmed in this paper.Medium and long term load of power system has two layer trends of increscent and fluctuant at the same time. The deficiency of the basic grey model and other improved models are analyzed, and a new method which is called a second combined model based on the combined optimum grey model is also introduced in this paper. Two parts compose the combined grey model in this paper. One is combined optimum grey model including partial error grey model and equal dimension and new information grey model. Another is linear regression analysis method. The partial error grey model has a character of fitting wave character load. The equal dimension and new information grey model can remove outdated data, add the newest data and renew the data base in order to reduce computational complexity and improve the precision of forecasting model. And the linear regression analysis method can improve the precision of forecasting model by the method of considering all kings of factors that influence electrical load. The calculation results show that forecasting power load by combined model is credible and simple. The combined model can estimate the model parameters, meet the requirement of dynamic power load and solve the problem of great effect of random disturbance. For this type of complex problems, the combination grey model is especially useful because of its high precision and facility. The method can be used as one of the tools of forecasting the medium and long term power load.According to the practical demands of electric departments, whole medium and long term load forecasting software for urban power networks is developed. It has been proved by using practical data that this system can commendably satisfy demands of load forecasting for the urban power networks planning and increase planner’s work efficiency, with friendly man-machine interfaces, convenient accesses and complete graphical functions. The error of the forecasting software can be controlled in the domain of±3%.更多还原