【作者】 秦毅男；

【导师】 许珉；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 配电网规划是所在供电区域国民经济和社会发展的重要组成部分，同时也是进行电力系统扩展建设的极为重要的前期工作。随着配电系统负荷日益增长，对供电的质量和可靠性要求逐渐提高，合理地进行配电网规划可以获得巨大的社会效益和经济效益。本文是在参与实际项目《舞阳县“十一五”电网发展规划》的基础上完成的。从电力负荷预测、潮流分析与短路电流计算、配网网架优化及线损计算等四个方面，对配电网规划方法做了一些研究，主要内容如下。(1)研究分析了传统的负荷预测方法如用电单耗法、弹性系数法、回归分析法、灰色理论预测法等，这些方法有着各自的特点和适用范围，它们模型简单、概念清晰、计算简便，在一般情况下都能满足负荷预测的要求，因而长期以来在负荷预测中得到了广泛的应用。然后在此基础上引入了组合预测方法，它将多个不同预测模型有机地组合在一起，可以综合各个模型的优点，有效地改善了模型的拟合能力，提高了预测的精度。应用上述方法对舞阳县2005～2015年负荷水平进行了预测，取得了较好的结果。(2)针对配电网的特点，选取了合适的潮流计算算法，对舞阳县规划年度配电网络进行了潮流分析，同时进行了短路电流计算。应用具有可视化的人机交互界面的电力系统计算程序，可以提高工作效率，增强电网规划的科学性和可靠性。(3)建立了配网网架优化数学模型，采用了人工免疫算法进行网架优化模型的求解。免疫算法在一般遗传算法的基础之上增加了抗原记忆识别功能，还增加了抗体间亲和性的计算，保证了抗体的多样性，从而保证了算法的全局最优性。针对配电网络的辐射特点，本文应用图论知识，采取以新增节点为染色体的基因座的编码方法，避免了辐射性检查，提高了进化速度。(4)开发了基于节点编号的理论线损计算程序。本程序直接利用网络节点编号描述电网拓扑结构，根据电气图形元件信息表形成计算网络，并进行接线分析，按照深度优先搜索策略实现线损计算功能。程序具有图形化人机交互界面，可以和电网调度自动化高级应用软件共用一个图形平台，共享计算网络和SCADA系统的实时数据，实现了与SCADA系统更紧密地融合。研究和应用配电网规划的新理论新方法，开发具有可视化人机交互界面的配电网规划软件，对提高电网规划的水平，减轻人员劳动强度，增强电网规划决策的科学性，具有重大的现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Distribution network planning is an important component of national economy and social development in power supply district. It is also the vital preparatory work of power system for expansion. Along with the increasing of distribution system load, the higher quality and reliability are demanded. The great benefits of social and economic can be achieved through reasonable distribution network planning.This paper is completed on the basis of the actual participation in the project "the 11th Five-Year Plan of Wuyang’s electric network development planning". The methods of distribution network planning are studied from four respects such as power load forecast, power flow analysis and short-circuit current calculation, distribution network optimization and line loss calculation. Main works as following.(1) Some traditional load forecast methods such as electricity each consumption method, elasticity coefficient method, regressive analysis and grey theory forecast method are discussed. These methods have their own characteristic and adaptive arrange. Because of simple model, explicit conception and convenient calculation, they can meet the demands of load forecasting in the general circumstance and be widely used for a long time. Based on these methods, the combined forecast model is introduced. It organically combines several different forecast models together and synthesizes the advantages of these models. It can improve simulating ability and forecast precision. Good results are obtained by applying these methods to forecast load level of Wuyang county in the year 2005～2015.(2) With regard to the characteristics of distribution network, the appropriate algorithms are adopted to calculate power flow and short-circuit current of Wuyang distribution network for planning year. An application of power system calculation programs which have visual man-machine interactive interface can improve efficiency and enhance the scientific literature and reliability of power network planning.(3) The model of distribution network optimization is established. An artificial immune algorithm is used to solve the model. Compared with genetic algorithm , it increases antigen’s memory and identification ability. In addition, the calculation of affinity among antibody is increased in immune algorithm. It obtains the diversity of antibody. Therefore the global optimum is ensured. In view of the radiation characteristics of distribution network, by using graph theory knowledge, the coding method which regards new node as the gene of chromosome is adopted to avoid the radiation inspection and improve the speed of evolution.(4) The theoretical line loss calculation program based on node number is developed. Node number gives a description of network topology. According to electrical components graphics information table, wiring analysis is performed, and computing network is formed automatically. After that, line loss calculation function is realized on the basis of the depth-first search strategy. The program has graphical man-machine interactive interface. It shares graphics platform, computing network and the real-time data from SCADA system with high-level application software of power network dispatching automation.The research and application of new theory and methods, and the development of planning software which has visual man-machine interactive interface, have great practical significance on improving the level of power network planning, reducing labor intensity and making more scientific decision of distribution network planning.更多还原