【作者】 米文勇；

【导师】 马国忠；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 自行车在我国许多大城市中出行比例较高，大量的自行车对机动车产生干扰，引起交通堵塞或交通事故等一系列问题，给城市中心区带来了沉重的交通负担。因此，解决好自行车交通问题对促进城市可持续发展具有重要意义。根据我国国情，解决自行车交通问题需要从两个方面综合考虑。其一，从交通供给的角度，规划和建设自行车交通网络，规范自行车出行；其二，从交通需求角度，实施交通需求管理，对自行车的长距离出行进行控制。近几年来，国内对自行车道路系统的研究较多，而对交通需求管理缺乏重视。存车换乘是交通需求管理的一部分，在国外应用相当广泛。它是通过系统的规划和政策指引，促使自行车成为公共交通的补给交通方式，减少自行车长距离出行需求，缓解中心区压力。目前，我国对这方面的研究甚少，本文正是在此背景下研究展开的。本文首先分析我国城市自行车交通现状与发展趋势，以及自行车引起的城市交通问题，指出实施自行车交通需求管理的必要性。通过分析国外自行车存车换乘的实例，探索出城市实施存车换乘的必要条件，将我国一些大城市对应的指标与之进行比较分析，指出在国家大力发展公共交通的情况下，我国实施自行车存车换乘是可行的。在自行车与轨道交通换乘系统规划方面，通过借鉴国外小汽车与轨道交通换乘规划的理论，结合自行车存车换乘的特点，归纳总结出自行车存车换乘规划的理论与方法。自行车换乘需求预测和停车场的设置是规划的关键环节。在需求预测方面，论文采用效用最大化理论推导换乘客流非集计预测模型，并在选择合理的特征变量的基础上，建立车站自行车换乘需求预测的BL模型。通过设计意向调查表收集特征变量数据，进行模型的标定工作，并运用实例，说明模型的建立以及换乘需求预测的方法。在停车场布局方面，考虑到不同轨道交通车站特征的不同，选择具有代表性的三类车站分别说明其自行车停车场位置的设置方法。另外，对于同一车站同一出入口附近的停车场位置的选择采用TOPSIS方法进行优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 The trip by bicycle possesses very high proportion in a lot of big cities of our country. Large amount of bicycles produce disturbances to the motor vehicles that arouses a series of problems such as traffic jams or road accidents, which brings a heavy traffic pressure to the city center. Therefore, resolving the bicycle traffic problem will be the key to promote city sustainable development. According to the real situation of our country, two schemes should be carried out together to solve this problem. First one, from the angle of traffic supply, planning and building city cycle-traffic network to regulate its traffic behavior; Another one, from the angle of traffic demand, carrying out the travel demand management (TDM) to control the long distance bicycle trips. Recent years, there have been a lot of researches on cycle-traffic network, but the research on TDM for bicycle has not been paid attention. Bike-and-Ride (B&R) is an important treatment for the urban travel demand management, which could make the bicycle become a feedering mode for mass transit to reduce the demands of long distance trips and relieve the traffic pressure of the city center. At present, the research on this aspect is so few, so this paper spreads out under this background.In the paper the developing condition and tendency of the bicycle traffic and the problems caused by bicycles are analyzed firstly. Based on above analysis, the necessity of carrying out B&R scheme is pointed out. Secondly, according to analyze the successful examples about Bike-and-Ride of foreign cities, the requisites that could carry out the B&R scheme are discussed. Comparing the relevant indexes in our cities with these requisites, the feasibility of carrying out Bike-and-Ride in our cities is put forward on condition that the public traffic would be devoted major efforts in our country.In aspect of B&R system planning, using the planning theory of foreign cities’ car park-and-ride system for reference and combining with characters of the Bike-and-Ride system, the theory and method of B&R system planning is summarized.Bike-and-Ride demand predicting and bicycle parking lot location are two key parts of B&R system planning. As the aspect of demand predicting, the paper deduces the model of transfer passenger stream by the Max Use theory. Then with logically choosing feature variables, the paper establishes the BL model. According to design the SP (stated preference) questionnaire, variables datum are collected. Using above datum, the model is calibrated. Finally, one real example is used to demonstrate the whole process of the model construction and demand predicting. As the aspect of bicycle parking lot location, considering different station have different characters, the stations are divided three typical groups and the method of bicycle parking lot location is explained respectively. Additionally, The TOPSIS method is used to locate the best position from all of prepared lots at the same station entrance.更多还原