【作者】 孙洪波；

【导师】 李北伟；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文根据吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省新兴产业选择与培育战略研究”课题的需要,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,研究了新兴产业选择的理论与方法。论文首先从新兴产业的形成和发展入手,对新兴产业的形成发展动因和路径进行了论述,分析了发展新兴产业的必要性,明确了新兴产业和其他相关概念的关系;然后根据新兴产业的形成路径从内生和外引两个方面建立备选新兴产业集,为产业选择提供平台;通过对以往产业选择的理论与方法的研究,借鉴产业组织理论以及产业生命周期理论,依据新兴产业的内涵及特征,充分考虑新兴产业选择的原则,即市场需求原则、技术创新原则、投资强度原则以及比较优势原则,设计提出了新兴产业选择的评价指标体系,并应用因子分析的方法对备选产业集进行排序,结合多指标评价的方法,构建了新兴产业选择的模型,形成了一个新的产业选择思路,为新兴产业的培育提供了科学的依据;在理论研究的基础上,以吉林省新兴产业选择为例,通过对历史数据进行充分的挖掘,对理论方法进行了实证研究,验证了理论研究的结论;最后根据研究结果,提出了吉林省新兴产业发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the expanding of economic globalization, the industrial structure in China will surely experience more rapid transfer. The problem, that how to do research on industrial structure and make corresponding adjustment and optimization according to the status and its development trend, has become a focus in the field of industrial research. Among these,industrial selection has become the core, and emerging industries is an industrial development point of economic growth, is the future leading industries. Can select the right emerging industries to form and comparative advantage of the emerging industries that will nurture the industries with special advantages, formation has great vitality of the industrial structure, promote regional rapid economic development is of great significance.Based on reading the relavant materials and theory of industrial selection,found that the current theoretical study for industrial selection concentrated in the standard of industries selection, while less on its evaluating method. In addition, the selection of industries concentrated mainly in leading industries and pillar industries choice, as for the selection of emerging industries fewer. Despite there are many theoretical method of industrial selection, however, the correct selection of industries is a very complex and difficult issue. In essence, the industry selection standard of theory exists great difficulties not only in estimates, but in coordination between the indicators. In particular, the reality of economic analysis how use of these standard rationally for their effective ranking, is a major problem now. Therefore, in order to select industries more properly, the article, through researching the past industry selection theory and methods, considering emerging industries their own requirements and characteristics, integrating all the advantages of a emerging industry options, proposed a new line of thought of emerging industry selection. During industry selection, the traditional industries rely mainly on the division of resources and the scale of the industry, this approach under certain circumstances can not select the industry comprehensive, which has certain limitations. With the development of the economy, appear many new industries, which conditions are diverse, and constantly changing.Therefore,before emerging industries selection,we should establish the emerging industries set correctly, for the selection of emerging industries providing reliable platform. Emerging industries include these industries which have obvious advantages in it.In these industries, some industries can be quantitative, some industries are not quantifiable to select, but when the industry developed to certain scale, it can be quantitative.Therefore, in the division of the emerging industry ,need from the traditional industries division transferred to the demarcation line with modern industry, to evaluate and select the industry properly. The article establish the emerging industries set from the inside and outside factors to consider creatively.The emerging industries that emerged by inside factor include intra-regional integration division, or the fusion of new industries , Or because of upgrading technology, upgrading services generate new industries, or new technological breakthroughs in information technology, etc.The outside factor include international and regional industries gradually shift and attracting support from business investment.As the development of economic is changing unceasingly, the emerging industry changes unceasingly along with it and also varies in different ways. Since each economy development phase can enforce a new industrial development , we must analyze the establishment of alternative industrial collection in the develop and the dynamic angle. Therefore, we can make scientific recognition and choice for the industry.For the selection of emerging industrial is a question of multi-objective decision, the appraisal system of emerging industrial in fact reflects the industrial competitive power. Considering all the emerging industrial is hopeful to be chosen for future leading industry, therefore in the construction of emerging industrial selection appraisal target system, this paper makes a reference to some criteria and the standard in the leading industry selection appraisal system, and combines with some synthesis characteristic of the emerging industry in the industrial life cycle. From the industrial market scale, the innovation intensity, the investment intensity as well as the comparison superiority that four principles of emerging industrial selection. The design proposes the emerging industrial selection appraisal target system.Then this paper applies factor analysis method, and separately makes the factor analysis to the emerging industrial appraisal target. Thus it carries on sorting in the quota angle to the alternative industrial collection for selection emerging industry. Finally, the application factor appraisal law has certain research experiences and through some carries on the allocation to the actual judgment ability expert to each target, definite weight, in qualitative angle examination sorting result accuracy.In the foundation of theoretical research, the article has conducted the real diagnosis research taking the Jilin Province emerging industry selection as the example.In alternative industrial collection establishment process, in order to realize the quantitative analysis, the article takes counts in the yearbook the industry to divide as the datum, chooses the prospects for development of several good industries, carries on sorting to it, and thus determines the Jilin Province emerging industry selection.Then it applies the model proposed in this paper and chooses the energy industry, the chemical fiber spinning and weaving industry, the new building materials industry as well as the metallurgy industry from the Jilin Province alternative industry centralism as the key cultivation emerging industry for Jilin Province’s future. According to the result of theoretical researches and the real diagnosis researches, the article from the comparison superiority, the innovation intensity, the investment intensity, the human resources as well as the preferential policy five angles puts forward the countermeasure proposals to the Jilin Province emerging industry development. It provides the scientific basis for the cultivating of Jilin Province future emerging industry.更多还原