【作者】 高苏蒂；

【导师】 李如忠； 孙世群；

【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 环境科学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水质评价和水环境容量计算是环境规划与管理的一项重要的基础工作。论文基于河流水环境系统具有的模糊性、随机性、灰性和未确知性，运用非确定性数学理论对现有水质评价、水质预测和环境容量计算方法进行研究和改进，得到如下结果：首先在水质评价方面，论文借鉴已有的模型成果，通过将污染指标定义为盲数，构建了水质评价综合指数和水质等级识别的盲数模型。根据上述模型，不仅可以得到水质综合指数的各种可能取值区间及其相应的可信度，也可以识别出待评水域所属的水质等级类别。其次，在水质预测方面，结合已有的模糊线性回归模型成果，建立了一个带有三角模糊参数的河流水质模糊线性回归预测模型。运用模糊数的α-截集技术，可以将水质预测值由三角模糊数转化为与一定可信度水平α相应的区间值，为河流水质预测提供了新思路、新方法。第三，在水环境容量计算方法，分别运用盲数理论和三角模糊数基本原理，构建了河流水环境容量计算的盲数模型和三角模糊模型。由其中的三角模糊模型，可以得到模糊数形式的环境容量，进而绘制出环境容量的隶属函数曲线，为水环境质量的科学管理提供了更为灵活的技术支持。实例研究证明了上述两种理论方法计算结果的合理性。本文将盲数与三角模糊数理论引入该领域，扩展了水质评价、水质预测和水环境容量计算的方法，此方法用途广泛，除了水环境，还可用于气体、土壤、海洋、旅游、人口等方面的容量计算。更多还原

【Abstract】 To evaluate the water quality and calculation,the water environmental carrying capacity are the basic tasks for water enviromental planing and management. Based on the characteristics of random,fuzziness, and uncertainty of water environmental system, uncertained mathematic theories are used to improve the traditional water environmental models.For water quality assessment , by way of the existing model and denoting the monitoring data of water quality for each index as blind numbers, a new water quality index model with blind number parameters and a blind reliability model for identifying the ranks of water quality are established primarily. According to these two models, not only the possible interval values and their corresponding faith degrees for aggregative index number of water quality, but also the ranks of water quality of evaluated waters can be identified. Study results show that it is feasible and reliable employ the blind number theory for water quality assessment.By way of the existing fuzzy linear regression model, a new linear regression model with triangular fuzzy parameters is established for river water quality forecast. According to the upward model, the trend of river water quality can be reflected by means of triangular fuzzy numbers. Using theα-cut technique for fuzzy numbers, the forecast values of river water quality can’ be converted from triangular fuzzy numbers into interval values corresponding to the given confidence levelα. Study results show that the fuzzy linear regression model with triangular fuzzy parameters is suitable for river water quality forecast.For water environmental carrying capacity,the blind number theory and triangular fuzzy number theory are used to improve the water environmental carrying capacity model respectively .On the basis, two new modles with blind number parameters and triangular fuzzy parameters are established respectively. It is proved reasonable in calculating the environmental capacity of river and reservoir.In the end, the blind number theory and triangular fuzzy number theory are used to improve the water quality assessment, the river water quality forecast and the water environmental carrying capacity. Except for water,it can be used widely in air,soil,sea,travle and population.更多还原