人民币汇率制度改革的实证研究

【作者】 肖琼；

【导师】 高洪深； 郑春梅；

【作者基本信息】 北方工业大学 ， 数量经济学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，中国经济日益溶入世界经济中，面对经济全球化，涉及到经贸、金融汇率等的国际争端，很难再以“国家主权”来简单地予以拒绝讨论。中国为了自己的利益，也必须正视人民币汇率的问题。2005年7月人民币汇率改革启航，暂时平息了持续近3年的对人民币汇率的争论，但是来自国际社会的压力依然不退，而且从2005年汇率制度改革以来，人民币汇率也是一再突破高点，且有金融机构的研究报告预计，2007年人民币将加快升值。在金融全面开放的今天，人民币汇率究竟将何去何从，新的汇率制度将如何更好的走下去，这些问题已迫在眉睫。本文所做工作以及创新之处，主要包括以下几点：1、全面分析了我国汇率制度的发展历程，对新的汇率制度改革的内容、原则、以及最新进展做了全面的阐述；2、详细的讨论了汇率决定理论的优缺点以及在我国的适用性；3、通过分析各宏观经济变量对汇率变动的影响，建立了人民币汇率长期决定模型(这也是本文的创新之处)，对此模型进行了实证分析，并利用此模型对人民币汇率的失调程度进行了估计，为缓解人民币升值压力寻找渠道；4、对新的人民币汇率制度的完善提出可行的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently, our economy dissolves increasingly into the world’s economy, facing an economic globalization, the issues involving economic and trade and exchange rate can’t be refused to discuss by the excuse of "national sovereignty". For the sake of self-interest, China has to envisage the problem of RMB exchange rate. RMB exchange rate reform started in July, 2005, although this put down the dispute lasting 3 years about the appreciate of RMB exchange rate, the pressure which is put by the international society still being, and since the reform, the RMB exchange rate still impact the high point again and again, some economists report that RMB would accelerate appreciation in 2007. Now, facing the wide open of finance, how the RMB exchange rate chooses, and how the new exchange rate regime will go on, these problems are of the most important ones now.The main content and innovation covers: 1.Analyze the exchange rate regime and study the principle, content and the evolvement of the new reform of exchange rate regime completely; 2.Discuss the merit and shortcoming of the exchange rate determination theories in detail and expatiate their applicability in china; 3.After analyzing the macroeconomic factors, which influence the exchange rate change, this paper establishes a long term model of RMB exchange rate determination, makes an empirical study of this model, estimates the misadjustment of the RMB exchange rate, and finds a good way to ease the press of the appreciation of RMB; 4.Put forward some suggestions for the development of the new RMB exchange rate regime.更多还原