【作者】 张伟；

【导师】 徐爱功；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 大地测量学与测量工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 智能交通系统(Intelligent Transportation Systems,ITS)是解决现代交通问题的唯一方法。行程时间预测是ITS研究领域的一项重要内容,可以为ITS的子系统提供实时、准确、可靠的行程时间预测信息。分析了GPS和GIS用于行程时间预测的可行性,将GPS作为交通信息采集的手段,具有传统交通信息采集手段所无法比拟的优越性,但国内外将其作为交通信息采集主要手段的仍不多见,并且也缺乏理论体系的分析。对用于行程时间预测所需的历史数据库进行了讨论。分别对历史趋势法、时间序列模型、卡尔曼滤波和BP神经网络时间预测模型进行了分析。采用Visual Basic6.0编程语言结合MapX进行开发,实现GPS数据在GIS电子地图中的定位及轨迹的显示,并结合电子地图的基础GIS信息进行行程时间的预测和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) can solve the serious traffic problem. The travel time prediction is an important research item in the field of Intelligent Transportation Systems. It can provide real-time, accurate, reliable travel time prediction information for its subsystems.This dissertation analyzes the GPS and GIS to used for the possibility of travel time prediction ,and adopts to the GPS as the means to collect the transportation information, the technique as the complementary means of the way that the traditional means of the transportation information collecting, having the superiority that the traditional means of the transportation information collecting can’t comparing to, but taking it as main means of transportation information collecting still see not much in our country and international countries, and also lack of the analysis to the theories system .Then discusses the history database that used for the travel time prediction needed.This dissertation analyzes the theories of history trend method、time preface row model、Kalman filter and BP neural network. This dissertation uses the Visual Basic6.0 program language to develop with vector map widget MapX to carry out the orientation and track of GPS fixed position data to display in GIS electronics map, then carries on the travel time prediction and analyzes it with basic GIS information of electronics map.更多还原