【作者】 贾燕飞；

【导师】 李慧民；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 控制技术应用于投资及产出关系的分析，是近年来经济领域十分重视的研究课题之一，这也是非常复杂的非线性问题。在西部区域规划的控制过程中，产业发展联系着区域经济发展的方方面面，是区域发展的重要内容，区域投资又是区域经济增长的第一原动力，而产业投资结构是否合理直接影响产业的发展，因此，对产业投资结构及产业结构进行调整对整个区域产业的及整个区域经济增长意义重大。由于产业投资结构在经济政策的调整，加上自然因素的制约，使产业投资结构在一定程度上存在不确定性，使得某些产业或某些年份的投入与产出的数据有所波动，这样使得数据的规律性减弱，增加了传统方法(如回归分析法)分析此问题的难度，也使得分析结论的可信度有所降低。为此，论文提出了应用灰色系统理论来解决这一问题。首先，论文对区域产业经济指标进行了灰色关联分析，将得出的结论应用于剖析西部的区域经济状况，探索西部地区发展不平衡的原因，为西部制定未来产业结构及产业投资发展规划。然后，论文在深入研究投资问题的基础上，提出建立投资预测模型，即根据投入和产出的关系，建立投资的产出预测模型，提出了基于灰色系统理论的投资预测方法，较好地解决了投资预测模型的建立问题。最后，通过实例分析来证明这两个方法的有效性，从分析结果中对西部产业进行适当的产业投资结构调整，以此来指导西部现有的产业投资结构调整的方向，提高产业效益的最优化，最终促进整个西部区域经济的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The control technology applies to the analysis of the investment and delivers relational, it is one extreme research topics in economical fields in the recent years. It is also the extremely complex non-linear problem. In the control process of west regional planning, the industrial development relates the regional economic development in every aspect. It is the important content of the regional development; the regional investment is also the first driving force of the regional economy growth. But industrial investment structure is whether reasonable or not, which influences industry development directly. Therefore, the adjustments on the industrial investment structure and the industrial structure are very significant to the entire regional industry and entire regional economy growth. As the industrial investment structure in the economic policy adjustment and the restriction of the natural factor, causes the industrial investment structure indefinite in addition in the certain degree, and causes the data of certain industry and certain year’s investments has undulation. Thus the data of the regularity was weaker, and it increases the difficulty of the traditional method (for example return analytic method) to analyze this question. It also reduces the confidence level of the analysis conclusion. Therefore, the paper solves this problem by gray system theory.First, the paper has carried on the gray connection analysis to the regional industrial economic indicator. The obtained conclusion has applied to economical condition which analyzes the west. It has explored the reason that the development of the western area is not balance. It has formulated the future industrial structure and the industrial investment development plan for the west. Then, the paper has based on thorough research investment question, and has proposed to establishment investment forecast model, namely in the light of the relation of investment and delivery. It has established the forecast model of the investment and has proposed investment forecast method that bases on the gray system theory. These have solved the establishment problem of investment forecast model well. Finally, the paper proved these two methods to be valid by the example. We have carried on the suitable adjustment about industrial investment structure from the analysis result to the western industry west. It will instruct adjustment direction of instructs the existing industrial investment structure by this, and enhance the optimization of the industrial benefit, finally it will promote the economy development of the entire west region.更多还原