【作者】 吴彤；

【导师】 李俊祥；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 生态学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 崇明岛地处长江口，以农业为主，受人类活动影响相对较小，是上海市最具潜在战略意义的发展空间。近年来，上海市政府提出建设可持续发展的“崇明生态岛”的战略目标。既要发展经济，又要保护生态环境，成了政府和决策者面临的难题。建设崇明生态岛，除了界定和理解“生态岛”的概念和内涵外，首先面临的就是崇明发展的生态承载力问题。为提供可持续发展空间，必然涉及解决人口增长与土地持续高效利用之间的矛盾。土地资源承载力定量分析人口、粮食、土地资源之间的关系问题，不仅是生态承载力的重要模块，也是实现区域可持续发展的基础，是建设崇明生态岛的基石。本研究在3S技术（遥感、地理信息系统和全球定位系统）的支持下，综合运用生产力估算模型、农作物遥感估产、野外实地调查和观测以及统计分析等方法，定量分析和计算人口、粮食、土地和生活水平之间的相互关系，对崇明岛土地资源现状、不同条件下的土地生产潜力、土地资源的人口承载力和土地综合承载力进行研究，在此基础上，对崇明岛土地开发利用中的预留和结构优化问题进行了初步的探讨。得出的主要结论如下：（1）土地利用类型解译得到：2005年崇明三岛的土地总面积为1,590.6km²，其中农田911.19km²、水域420.47km²，这两种类型分布广泛，共占土地总面积的83.72％，说明崇明岛土地类型较为单一；（2）农业人口和农业用地所占比例大，分别达到72.18％和57.29％，充分表明农业在崇明岛经济中的支柱作用；（3）人均粮食消费水平和基于现状生产力的土地人口承载力下限均表明崇明岛人民生活水平于1999年达到宽裕，2004年超过小康，但目前还未达富裕水平，即以富裕标准衡量，人口处于超载状态；（4）基于气候生产潜力的土地承载力上限约为年均24人·hm^-2，实际人口数量尚有65.7％的增幅余地；（5）几种模型计算得年均气候生产潜力利用率为50～65％左右，表明生产力还有较大提升空间；（6）以现有生产力水平预测，2001年起实际耕地面积低于需求量，未来15年耕地需求满足程度将保持在80％左右；（7）最小生产性土地估算表明，保证人民生活富裕、以生产力达到生产潜力计算，最多约剩余22,092.8 hm²土地可进行开发利用；（8）CASA修正模型计算土地生产潜力和以MODIS-NDVI数据进行水稻大面积遥感估产的实验表明，这两种方法在运用3S技术获取最新数据上具备较强可行性，但需改进资料质量、增加资料数量以增强结果的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Chongming Island which lies in the Yangtze delta, where the agriculture is the primary and fundamental industry. The Island is relatively less influenced by human activity, and is thought to be full of most significance in its latent strategically space for further development of Chongming Island. In recent years, the Shanghai Municipal Government launched a strategic program to construct a sustainable Chongming Eco-island (CEI). How to develop economy but at the same time to protect ecological environment, has put the government and the policy-maker into a dilemma. To fulfill the construction of CEI, we encounter many questions such as what’s the Chongming Eco-island. How many people the Island can bear? How many land resources the Island has leave for the further development needed? How to resolve the problem between the population growth and land decrease and degradation? But first of all, how much the ecological carrying capacity for Chongming Island is the first but essential question to the sustainable development and Eco-island construction for Chongming. It is a great challenge to researchers and decision-makers.In this thesis, the method such as production estimation model, crop production estimation with remote sensing data, field investigation and observation and statistical analysis was employed, in support of remote sensing, Geographical Information Science and Global Positioning Systems which so-called "3S" techniques, to quantify and analyse the interactions between the population, food, land resources and life quality. We aim to address that (1) how about the current status of land resources in Chongming island; (2) the land production potential in different conditions; (3) the population carrying capacity in Chongming island; (4) the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources for Chongming island. Finally the optimization of landuse type and composition and the reservation of land for further development were also discussed. The findings are as followed:(1)The results from the landuse type extracted from aerial photos of Chongming Island acquired in 2005 showed that the total area of the three Chongming Island is about 1590.6km~2, in which the agricultural land area is 911.19km~2, the water area reaches 420.47km~2, both account for almost 83.72% of the total area. That is indicative of mono-landuse type in Chongming Island.(2)The proportion of agricultural population and agricultural lansuse type account for 72.18% and 57.29%, respectively which demonstrate that the agriculture is the basic and pillar industry in Chongming island.(3)According to the average grain consumption per capita and the lower land carrying capacity basing upon the present land productivity, the standard of living in Chongming Island has achieved confortable level in 1999 and surpassed well-off level in 2004, but has not reached wealth at present. That is to say, the current population carrying capacity was overloaded if in terms of wealthy standard of living.(4) Based upon the potential climate production we calculated. The upper population carrying capacity is approximately 24 persons per hectare per year. So there is great growth space of 65.7% for the population in Chongming Island.(5) The use efficiency of annual mean potential climate productivity is in the range of 50% to 65% according to the estimation results of Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model and CASA model, which demonstrates that there is great potential for land productivity promotion in the future.(6) The actual area of arable land is lower than the demand in 2001, and it is projected that the arable land demands will be satisfied at 80% in future 15 years in terms of the present land productivity;(7) The estimated minimum productive land area demonstrated that there are approximately 22,092.8hm~2 land area can be used to further development on the premise of that keeping the people in the wealthy standard of living and the land productivity can reach the potential climate production;(8) The performance of modified CASA model in estimation of land productivity and the method of crop estimation with remote sensing data for large area demonstrated that the two ways is robust and reliable in the estimation of land productivity support with 3S techniques. But better quality data and more data quantity should be needed to further enhance the accuracy of the estimation in the future.更多还原