基于非理性市场的货币幻觉

【作者】 任巧二；

【导师】 王稳；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 货币幻觉是经济生活中客观存在的一种现象,它最早是20世纪初由凯恩斯提出的,1928年美国经济学家欧文·费雪(Irving Fisher)发表《货币幻觉》一书,当时吸引了很多学者的兴趣,货币幻觉逐渐受到重视。货币幻觉属于传统经济学范畴,但在二十世纪七十年代以来,行为金融学家对其进行了深入研究,并且逐渐意识到心理因素对货币幻觉的重要影响。本文正是在行为金融学在中国逐渐占据主导投资理念的大背景下进行研究的,从行为金融学的角度即非理性市场的角度来重新阐述传统经济理论——货币幻觉。文章首先介绍货币幻觉的基本理论,该部分将从新古典经济学范式及行为金融学范式来进行阐述货币幻觉概念和理论。其次通过行为金融学经典试验来验证货币幻觉在现实经济生活中存在的广泛性;然后从行为金融学的角度来探讨货币幻觉产生的原因,该部分是分析的创新点。主要从行为金融学角度来探讨这一问题,如需要和动机理论,框架效应,启发式方法,个性心理特征和知识经验等行为金融学理论来分析货币幻觉产生的心理机制。最后介绍货币幻觉的影响,特别是对我国经济的影响。该部分将会用到实证分析来支持笔者所提出的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Money illusion is a common phenomenon in economics. The term“money illusion”was coined by John Maynard Keynes early in the twentieth century. In 1928 Irving Fisher gave the subject a thorough treatment in his book“The Money Illusion”. Since then, money illusion attracted many scholars’interest and was paid more and more attention to. Since the 1970s, behavioral finance was conducted an in-depth study by economists, and they began to realize that psychological factors had important influence on money illusion. With the behavioral finance was gradually placed in a dominant position, this paper is written from the behavioral finance perspective or the irrational market perspective to reformulate the traditional economic theory -- money illusion.This paper first introduces the basic theory of money illusion, which use both the new classical economics paradigm and behavioral finance paradigm to elaborate money illusion theory and concept. In the second part it will prove the money illusion broadly exists in our economic life through some classical experiments. In the third part which is innovative, it will illustrate the reasons that money illusion exists, the issue will be discussed mainly from the perspective of behavioral finance, such as the need and motivation theory, the framing effect, heuristic methods, personality characteristics, experience and knowledge and so on to analyze money illusion. Finally, the paper illustrates the effects of money illusion especially on Chinese economy; it is the most important part of the paper in which I will use empirical analysis to support my opinion. This part will focus on the analysis of money illusion’s impact on the stock market, the nominal inertia, export and import, and so on.更多还原