【作者】 杨金鹏；

【导师】 王浩； 秦大庸；

【作者基本信息】 中国水利水电科学研究院 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水，是人类赖以生存的不可缺少的一种宝贵资源，又是自然环境的重要组成部分，是可持续发展的基础条件。研究区域水资源承载能力，计算在保证生态良好和水环境安全的水资源能承载的社会经济发展规模，评价水资源的承载状况，是水资源研究领域中的重要内容之一。随着水资源短缺日益加剧，水资源已经成为制约唐山市社会经济可持续发展的关键控制因素，也显示出研究其水资源承载能力的现实必要性和迫切性。首先，本文对水资源承载能力研究理论方法及相关研究的发展趋势、思路等进行综述的基础上，探讨了水资源承载能力的概念、类型、内涵和特性，分析水资源承载能力研究的基础理论，把水资源承载能力的研究方法分为简单分析与估算方法、综合评价方法和复杂系统分析方法，进行总结并分析它们的优缺点。其次，按照水资源合理配置和水资源承载能力相互反馈的建模理念，构建水资源承载能力计算模型。在生态需水预测、国民经济需水预测和供水预测的基础上，通过水资源合理配置，确定分配给生活、生产和生态的水量，根据水资源宏观经济的投入产出关系和GDP核算方法计算农产品产量和GDP；根据不同承载水平的农产品和GDP人均需求标准，计算区域的水资源承载能力——承载人口；反馈计算结果和信息，并进行新一轮的水资源合理配置和水资源承载能力计算，直至水资源合理配置和水资源承载能力相匹配。再次，研究水资源承载状况的评价方法，建立了基于相对承载指数和绝对承载指数的水资源承载状况的分类体系。根据不同承载水平下的水资源承载能力和实际人口或预测人口，计算相对承载指数和绝对承载指数，分析水资源承载状况。最后，应用模型计算唐山市的水资源承载能力，并评价水资源承载状况。计算结果为：现状年基本小康和全面小康承载水平下的承载能力为853.78和585.17万人，两个承载水平下现状年的承载状态分别为弱度缺载和中度超载；2010年唐山市全面小康和基本现代化承载水平的承载人口为773.74和408.05万人，2010年的承载状态分别为弱度缺载和中度超载；2020年唐山市全面小康和基本现代化承载水平的承载人口为1582.46和845.12万人，2020年的承载状态分别为强度缺载和弱度缺载。现状年、2010年和2020年唐山市分别处于基本小康的后期，全面小康阶段和基本现代化阶段。论文还从工程技术、经济结构和管理与制度三个方面给出提高唐山市水资源承载能力的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water, as a kind of indispensable valuable resources for human survival, and an important component of the natural environment, is the basic condition of sustainable development. Research on Water resources carrying capacity in study area, measuring the socio-economical development scale that the water resources can bear assuring good ecosystem and safe water environment, accessing the water resources bearing condition, and making a good relationship among water resources, eco-environment, population and sustainable development are important problems in water resources study field. As the lack of water resources increases, water resource has become the key actor restricting the socio-economical sustainable development in Tangshan prefecture which shows the necessity and urgency of the research on water resources carrying capacity.Firstly, based on the overview of the theory method and development trend of the water resources carrying capacity, this paper has investigated the concept, the types, the nature and the characteristics, analyzed the basic theory, classified study methods as easy analysis-estimation way, index comprehensive assessment way and complicated system analysis way, and then compared their relative merits.Secondly, the train of thought of modeling depends on the reasonable allocation of the water resources and the interactive calculation model of the water resources carrying capacity. Based on the prediction of the eco-water demand, the national economy water demand and the water supply, by distributing the water resources reasonably, this paper has determined the water quantity distributed to the life, productivity and ecology, and calculated the agriculture product output and GDP in terms of the relation between input and output and the GDP checking way; according to the per capita demand standard, the water resources carrying capacity-carrying population in study area can be acquired; and the calculation result and information can be feed backed for another round of the reasonable allocation of the water resources and the interactive calculation the water resources carrying capacity.Thirdly, the method of estimation of the water resources carrying condition has been researched, and the classification system of water resources carrying condition by relative carrying index and by absolute carrying index has been created. According to water resources carrying capacity and actual (or forecasting) population at different carrying levels, relativecarrying index and absolute carrying index have been calculated to determinate water resources carrying condition.Lastly, this paper has calculated the water resources carrying capacity in Tangshan city through calculation model and estimated the carrying condition. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity in general moderate prosperity planning year and in total moderate prosperity planning year is respectively 8.54 million as slightly adequate and 5.85 million people as severe overloaded. The carrying population in total moderate prosperity and basically modernization in Tangshan in 2010 is respectively 7.74 million as slightly adequate and 4.08 million as severe overloaded. And that in 2020 is respectively 15.82 million as heavy adequate and 8.45 million as slightly adequate. According to the assessment result and classified standard in different development phases, we can draw a conclusion that Tangshan city is in phase of initial stage of moderate prosperity in planning year and total moderate prosperity in 2010 and basically modernization in 2020. This paper also proposes measures to increase the water resources carrying capacity taking the practical situation into consideration.更多还原