基于平均回弹过程的贴现现金流量法矿业权价值评估

【作者】 陈云；

【导师】 周平；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 矿物加工工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 矿产资源是人类的宝贵财富，是人类文明发展必不可少的物质基础。矿产资源数量有限、分布极不均衡且不可再生，如何实现矿产资源的合理利用与开发十分重要。矿业权是矿产资源所有权中派生出来的一种对矿产资源进行勘察、开采的权利，对矿业权进行评估是强化矿产资源资产管理和实现可持续发展的基础。所以，寻求科学的矿业权评估方法并利用先进手段优化评估过程，对真正实现我国矿产资源的资产管理，使矿产资源真正做到为国民经济健康、快速发展提供物质保障具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。目前，国内外矿业权评估的主要方法有：贴现现金流量法、可比销售法、联合风险勘查协议法、勘查费用倍数法、地学排序法和粗估法等。不同矿业权评估方法的选取往往取决于它应用的评估阶段，对于采矿权的评估应用最广且较成熟的方法是贴现现金流量法。综合考虑对国内现有矿业权评估方法的研究及贴现现金流量法在采矿权评估中的应用实际，贴现现金流量法应用中最关键的因素就是贴现率r、矿山服务年限n及净现金流量(Wai-Wbi)的选取。贴现率r的选取可依据资本资产定价模型方法、加权平均资本成本法、社会平均收益法等方法便可以准确确定；对于矿山服务年限n的确定往往采用“泰勒法则”等方法。而最难确定的就是净现金流量(Wai-Wbi)，主要原因是：净现金现金流量确定时需要综合考虑现金的流入和流出。净现金流量等于现金流人减去现金流出，现金流入包括产品销售收入、固定资产回收余额、流动资产回收余额等；现金流出则包括基本建设投资、经营成本、流动资金、所得税、资源税和资源补偿费等，其中经营成本是总成本费用扣除折旧、摊销费、维修费和借款利息。净现金流量再减去矿业资产平均投资收益后的现金流量，才是矿业权评估中进行折现的现金流量。但是，在实际评估的过程中最难以确定就是矿产品的价格，价格波动幅度有时相当大，且具有很强的随机游走性。而矿产品价格又直接关系到矿产品的销售收入、流动资金、及各种税费等因素的确定。所以，在计算净现金流量时最关键在于矿产品价格的确定。传统的评估方法中，人们常用一恒定价格或测算前五年价格、第六年开始一直到收益期满以第五年价格来测算收益。这些做法虽然都简单易行，但评估结果与日后项目实际运营情况就往往大相径庭了。论文通过对矿产品价格的一般属性及特殊性进行深入研究的基础上，提出了将随机过程中的相关理论如时间序列法、灰色系统理论方法和马尔柯夫过程方法应用于矿产品价格的预测。通过深入研究，最后确定马尔柯夫过程理论能很好韵用于矿产品价格的预测。在马尔柯夫过程理论的研究过程中，提出了维纳过程对矿产品价格的短期预测的可行性，但针对矿产品价格的长期预测，结合矿业权评估的特点，采用马尔柯夫过程理论中的平均回弹过程理论用于矿产品价格预测，并建立了矿产品价格随机游走的模型，进行了基于平均回弹过程的贴现现金流量法矿业权评估的研究。研究过程中采用矿产品价格预测模型模拟矿产品价格，从而计算净现金流量，最后用贴现现金流量法进行的矿业权评估值更接近矿业权的实际价值。在理论研究的基础上，通过对云南省某铁矿的采矿权评估的应用，充分证实了对矿产品价格进行预测研究的必要性，同时验证了将平均回弹理论应用于矿产品价格预测的合理性及可行性。为采矿权价值评估中贴现现金流量法的合理应用提供了基础参考，尤其是为合理预测矿产品价格、准确核定净现金流量的值，从而科学鉴定采矿权的价值提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mineral resources is the mankind’s precious wealth and the material foundation of the civilization essential to have. its quantity is limited which distributes very unbalanced and can’t be reborn. How to use it and to keep it developing are very important.The mineral industry power which is the parties livings from the mineral resources ownership is the right to carry on investigate and mining to the mineral resources. looking for the scientist methods and using them to give a Quotation to The mineral industry power is the foundation of property management and realizations’ development. it has the important theories and realistic meanings to attain the national economy to keep developing healthy and fast because of it providing the material guarantee for the national economy.Currently, the main methods of the mineral industry power valuation for the domestic and international are: Discounted Cash Flow, Comparable Market Values, Perambulate Cost Multiple, Geology Compositor etc. The different selection of the methods to usually be decided by the valuation stage, For mining stage, the most wide and mature method is the Discounted Cash Flow. Comprehensiving the consideration to the research and the actual of the Discounted Cash Flow is used to assess the valuation of mineral title. The key factors are how to select the discount rate, how to compute the mineral mountain service time and the clean cash discharge. The selection of the discount rate can be according to "Capital Asset Pricing Model, Weighted Average Cost of Capital, social average income"etc. the assurance of the mineral mountain service time isusually to adopt" the Taylor’s rule" etc. But the most important and difficult to assurance factor of them is the clean cash discharge, the reason is that it must be considered of the cash flows and the cash drains.The clean cash discharge is equal to the result of deducting the cash drains the from the cash flows, the cash flows include the product sale income, recovery surplus of fixed assets, recovery surplus of current assets etc;The cash drains include the capital construction investment, the management cost and the flows funds, the income tax, the resources tax and the resources compensation etc. among of them, the management cost is the total cost expenses to deduct the depreciation, amortization charge and maintenance cost and the interest of the funds. After that the clean cash discharge of subtracting again the average investment income of the mineral industry property of cash discharge is just the cash discharge that being used in the assessment of mineral title. But in the process of actual valuation, the most hard assurance is the price of the mineral article. the price motion ranges usually very greatly, and has very strongly rove around sex random. the mineral price of article relates to how to assurance the product sale income, the income tax and so on. So while computing the clean cash discharge , the key lies in the assurance of the mineral price of article. In the traditional valuation method, people generally use one fixed price or with measuring the price of the first 5 years compute the other price of the sixth year , then using this price compute the whole income .Although these way of doings go in brief and easily, the results is usually very different from the fact.With carrying on the sex and special of the price, The thesis puts forward some related theories to estimate the mineral product price for example the ARMA method, the gray system theory,theMorkov method. In the studying of these methods, the thesis certains that the Morkov method can be mostly used to estimate the mineral product price. Generalized Wiener Processes can be used to estimate the short-term estimation, but at the long-term estimation of the mineral price, the Average Rebound Processes can be used to estimate the process, in the thesis, the athour has studied the process and predict the model emulation mineral price of article in the adoption mineral price of article, discounted the clean cash discharge, assessed the valuation of the mining title using the Discounted Cash Flow.On the foundation that the theories has studied, the thesis carried on the one iron mine of Yunnan province. It gived the application of the necessity to opencast the research to the mineral product price, at the same time verified the rationality and the possibility of using the Average Rebound Processes to estimate the mineral product price. The thesis Provided the foundation reference for the reasonable application that mines for minerals to use the Discounted Cash Flow method in the power value valuation, particularly it provided the basis for the reasonable estimate mineral product price, the accurate assess of the clean cash discharge, thus authenticated scientific the value of mining for minerals .更多还原