【作者】 张余庆；

【导师】 吴桂涛； 孙培廷；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 轮机工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 故障树分析法是一种有效的系统可靠性分析方法，被广泛应用于航空航天、核工业、天然气运输等工业领域。传统故障树分析方法的前提是底事件的发生概率必须为精确值。但一些可靠性较高的复杂系统，其部件发生失效的确切概率很难获得。因此，在对复杂系统进行可靠性分析时，传统故障树分析方法遇到了困难。把模糊数学理论引入到故障树分析方法中，充分利用专家经验，将底事件发生概率处理成某一形式的模糊数，就可以弥补传统故障树方法分析复杂系统可靠性时的不足。 本文深入研究了模糊故障树分析技术在各领域的应用路线。在此基础上，对“海燕”轮喷水推进器液压系统进行了模糊故障树分析。本论文的研究内容概述如下： 首先，在总结船舶推进器发展过程的基础上，详细阐述了喷水推进器及其液压系统的功能和工作原理，为利用模糊故障树方法对喷水推进器液压系统进行分析奠定基础。 然后，对模糊数学方法与传统故障树的综合应用进行了研究。比较了传统故障树与模糊故障树的异同。对模糊故障树分析方法程序化进行了探讨。 最后，利用模糊故障树分析方法对喷水推进器液压系统进行了可靠性分析，得出了影响系统可靠性的所有最小割集，计算了顶事件发生的模糊概率及各底事件的重要度。对分析得出的系统关键环节和薄弱环节的弥补措施进行了探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a systematic and effective method for reliability analysis. It is widely used in many industry fields such as : airplanes, nuclear power station, natural gas transportation and so on.. The traditional FTA is based on the fact that the probabilities of all the bottom events are precise. But some bottom events’ precise probabilities are hard to know in more complex systems with good probability. So the traditional FTA is not suitable for such systems. Changing the probability of all the bottom events into a fuzzy number with fuzzy theory and experts’ experience can solve this problem.Based on a deep research on the routes that FTA used in other fields, this paper makes a system reliability analysis on the water jet of "HAI YAN" ship by Fuzzy-FTA method, and its’ contents can be summarized as follows:Firstly, give a detailed description of water jet and the hydraulic system after a conclusion research on ship propulsion history. That is the foundation of the analysis process.Secondly, make a theory research on the FTA process and fuzzy theory. Make a compare between the Fuzzy-FTA and FTA. Further more, describe the expectation of the program of Fuzzy-FTA.In the end, make a system reliability analysis by Fuzzy-FTA method on the hydraulic system of water jet. Gain all the minimal cut sets (MCS) of the fault tree. Calculate the probability of the fault tree’s top event. Make a research on solving the problems deduced from the fault tree.更多还原