【作者】 贲兴振；

【导师】 杨宝臣；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 数量经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是人类赖以生存、经济发展和社会进步的重要基础资源,是关系到国家经济命脉和国家安全的重要战略物资,是社会经济可持续发展的重要基础,在现代化建设中具有举足轻重的地位。本文在对能源背景研究和理论研究现状的基础上,对我国能源消费特征运用协整理论、Granger因果关系检验和数据包络分析等方法进行了实证分析,并提出了我国未来能源的发展方向。基于这个理念,全文分为五章,论文第一章论述了本文的选题背景及研究内容和现实指导意义。第二章介绍了我国能源开发利用的现状和实现可持续的能源发展的必要性和战略性。鉴于当前受到世界各国关切的环境议题,多与能源的生产与使用行为相关,论述了能源消费中和环境保护之间的权衡关系,实现可持续发展。第三章讨论了经济增长和能源消费之间的关系,并且采用协整分析技术,误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验方法,检验中国的能源消费总量以及各组成部分(煤炭、石油、天然气、水电)的消费量和国内生产总值之间的关系。第四章通过数据包络分析方法对能源利用效率进行评价,并论述了改变能源结构是提高能源利用效率,减轻环境污染的重要途径。第五章对未来能源发展的方向进行了论述。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is important basic natural resource of human existence, economic development, and society process. It’s important strategic material , which is related to economic lifeline and safety of a country. It is also the important basis of sustainable development of society economy. It plays an important role in the structure of modernization. This thesis makes research on the energy consumption in our country with cointegration techniques, Granger-causality and data envelopment analysis on the basis of background and theory research and analysis of present conditions.Based on this notion,the paper is divided into five parts. The first part introduces background and work of study, practical significance ; The second part discusses the present situation of exploring the energy to illustrate realizing sustainable development is necessary,whereas the environmental issues concerned all over the world have close relationship with the energy production and application, the part also discusses the relationship between energy consumption and environmental protection oriented from sustainable development; The third part discussed the relationship between energy consumption and economic increase with cointegration techniques , error correct model and Granger-causality; The fourth part evaluates energy efficiency by using data envelopment analysis, and discusses changing energy structure is an important way of increasing energy efficiency and subtracting environment pollution; The last part discusses direction of future energy.更多还原