【作者】 刘荣华；

【导师】 王光谦；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水利工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 塔里木河流域是一个封闭的内陆水循环和水平衡的相对独立的水文区域,干流自身不产流,依靠各源流汇入补给,目前主要由阿克苏河、和田河和叶尔羌河3个源流补给。近些年,由于水资源的过度开发与低效利用,塔河干流下游来水量逐年减少,流域生态环境日趋恶化。为保证流域自身的生存与发展,促进社会稳定和民族团结,2001年6月国务院正式批准《塔里木河流域近期综合治理规划报告》,并明确指出“要坚持以生态建设和环境保护为根本,以水资源合理配置为核心,源流与干流统筹考虑,工程措施与非工程措施紧密结合”作为近期综合治理的指导思想。据此塔里木河流域管理局提出建设塔里木河流域水量调度管理系统。论文在分析塔里木河流域水资源现状的基础上,对塔里木河流域水量调度自校正模型与适度优化方法进行了研究。在汲取塔里木河流域现行调度方法的基础上,提出了水量调度自适应法,同时,运用自适应控制理论,根据“轨迹跟踪、滚动修正”的原理,完成了塔里木河流域水量统一调度自校正模型。模型以国务院分水指标为控制目标,以基于规则的适度优化方法为控制手段,综合源流来水预报、需水预测、水量分配和水动力学模型,通过动态跟踪和掌控水调系统控制流量、来水水量、引水水量等状态参数,调节国民经济和生态用水计划,从而满足国务院指标,达到统一调度、公平分水的控制目标。在此模型的基础上又开发了自适应水量调度模块,并以2004～2005调度年的数据为基础对模型进行了验证,对验证结果进行了分析。此外,论文根据塔里木河的特点,提出了分区水调模型和优先级的概念,保证了过程水量的分配。塔里木河流域近期综合治理完成后,将主要以自适应方案作为调度方案,但自适应法主要是以国务院指标为基础指定的,不具有灵活性,论文为了适应以后水权分配和水量统一调度的需要,在陈志祥前期工作的基础上[50],开发了水量调度适度优化法。适度优化方法在总量上仍然使用国务院指标将水量分为经济水量和生态水量两个部分,在此基础上,主要对经济水量进行优化配置,根据农业种植业可用水量,对用水单位种植作物的用水量、种植面积进行优化指导,使农业效益最大化,在来水较少的情况下,尽量降低农业效益损失,减更多还原

【Abstract】 Tarim river basin is a close inland water circle, which is an independent and water-banlanced region. Tarim trunk river is drougty and scarce rain,which is supplied by 3 headstreams which are Akesu、Yeerqiang and Hetian River. In recent years, because of the excessive exploiture and inefficient utility of water resource, the water quantity of the lower reaches of Tarim River gets smaller and smaller; the quality of water and ecosystem becomes worse and worse gradually. To ensure the developement of river basin and faciliate the comity of all peoples, in June 2001, the State Council of P.R. China authorized《Planning Report about recent comprehensive administration in Tarim Watershed》and decided to father the Tarim River based on the principle that the root task is ecology construct and environment protect, the core idea is logical assignment of water resource which is consideried with headstreams and trunk stream and carried out by project measures and non-project measures. Accordingly, the Management Bureau of Tarim Watershed proposed to construct Water Regulation Management System (WRMS) as a technology support platform. Analyzing the water resource status of Tarim Watershed, methods of self-tuning water regulation schemes and moderately optimized means are studied in this thesis.Drawing from the actual water regulation scheme workout, the self-tuning water regulation model is brought forward, which is based on self-adaptive theory and the principle of contrail track and successive correct. This model is built with water distribution-index of the State Council of P.R. China as the control objective, which contains runoff-forecasting model, water-demand forecasting model, water allot model and one-dimensional water dynamic model.based on the model the self-tuning water regulation module is developed and validated with the 2004-2005 year’s data.further more,the concept of distributed water regulation model and process water quantity assign PRI is advanced in this thesis which assure the assignment of process water.更多还原