【作者】 沈姗姗；

【导师】 傅新平；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 自20世纪50年代以来，随着经济全球化的发展，物流业以惊人的速度发展变化着，我国物流园区的建设也随之蓬勃发展起来。但是在我国物流园区的建设发展的过程中出现了一系列的问题，其中最为重要的一个问题为；已建成的物流园区的空置率达到了60％。而物流园区本身具有占地规模广、投资金额大的特点，一旦空置率过高，便会造成土地资源的浪费与资金的无序利用。所以，为了避免这种情况的继续恶化，对于拟建中的物流园区要进行仔细的规划，这其中，物流园区的选址规划是极为值得关注的。 对物流园区的选址规划问题进行研究的目的是选择一个最佳的物流园区地点，从而到达缓解城市交通压力，促进区域经济发展的目的。但是由于进行选址所需要的相关资料存在着信息不对称，人们认知有限等原因的影响，从而导致了物流园区选址存在着风险，所以，本文就物流园区的选址风险问题进行了探讨。 在对物流园区及物流园区选址的相关定义、理论进行了一番了解的基础上，本文依据风险管理理论，根据风险辨识—风险评价和分析—风险管理这—风险分析程序，对物流园区选址风险进行了分析。 首先，本文根据风险的特性，把常用的分析方法与物流园区选址实际情况结合起来，将物流园区的选址风险因素分为了三大类别，分别为：经济因素、竞争性因素和可持续性因素。 其次，本文提出了物流园区选址的综合评价方法。这个方法综合运用了熵值法与二元对比法来确定物流园区选址风险中各因素的权重，然后使用模糊综合评价法对物流园区选址风险进行了综合分析，之后将理论与实践结合起来，进行了算例分析。还提出可以运用盈亏平衡法和敏感性分析方法对园区风险因素中的经济因素进行评价，避免了单一运用定性模型的片面性。 最后，本文通过对上述的物流园区选址风险所进行的分析和评价，对园区的选址风险有了更进一步的了解，从而从不同的角度对规避和减轻物流园区的选址风险提出了一些措施，如，国家应当对物流园区的选址问题进行整体的规划与调控，而物流园区的规划者应严格按照园区的选址程序而开展选址工作等。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 1950’s, with the development of economy, Logistic changes and develops rapidly. In our country, Distribution Park appeared and developed. But, in the process of the development of Logistics Park, there are lots of problems; one of the most important questions is that there are about 60% of Distribution Parks unused. Building up a distribution park needs plenty of capital and the resource of ground, once the distribution park was built up, but it unused, it would lead to the waste of limited ground in country and capital. So, in order to avoid the condition happened again, we must pay attention to the location of Distribution Park.Why do we have to do some research on the location of Distribution Park? Because we want to find out the best location of distribution park. But the problem with location also have some risks, this article will do some research on the risk of the location of distribution park.After knowing some concepts and theories about the location of distribution park, in the light of the management of risk, I will based on the way of the management of risk, analyze the risk of the location of distribution park.Firstly, "introduce" and "Distribution Park summarization" is put forward in this paper, "introduce" includes the background of Logistics and Distribution Park, the study meaning, the study content, the study method, the main contribution and innovation. "Distribution Park summarization" includes the definition of Distribution Park, the classification, the function, all that pushes the way for the following text. This paper constructs some decision-making models of Distribution Park location and some principles, elements.Secondly, this paper presents a systemic and structural decision-making process for enterprise to engage the risk of the Distribution Park location.Thirdly, Fourthly, the integration of analyze of rationalization, fuzzy evaluation, and analytical hierarchy process are proposed as a tool that can effectively handle the更多还原