【作者】 王轶；

【导师】 王军武；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 结构工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 周期性的经济波动现象会直接影响到各种产业经济的发展，会使其出现同样的周期性波动现象。国内外房地产发展的历史证明，由于房地产的发展要受到宏观经济发展、人口、政治、社会、文化、法律制度等多种因素的影响，所以在其发展过程中也会表现出周期性波动的变化，出现高峰期和低谷期。 从历史角度来看，房地产在中国的形成和发展经历了曲折漫长的道路。正视房地产的周期波动现象，分析和研究决定房地产周期波动的内外因素，探讨房地产周期波动的传导机制，提出应对周期波动的政策和对策，将对我国房地产持续、健康、稳定地发展产生重大而深远的影响。鉴于这一点，本文将以我国房地产周期波动为研究对象，讨论其基本理论、影响因素、实践意义等方面。 本文第一章主要分析研究房地产周期波动的背景、意义，提出本文的研究思路和方法及主要观点。第二章在经济周期波动的一般概念的基础上界定房地产周期波动的含义及基本理论，然后集中分析房地产周期波动在每一阶段的特征，为后文对房地产周期的讨论作铺垫。第三章首先分析了国外及国内部分城市房地产周期波动的特点和实例，然后结合这些特点讨论我国房地产周期波动的划分及特征，定性分析形成房地产周期波动的内外因素。第四章从定量角度出发，根据内部外部的波动模型建立内外综合模型，分析研究房地产周期波动的内外机制。第五章根据前文对房地产周期波动的成因分析，分别站在政府角度和开发商角度分析，讨论房地产的调控策略和投资策略，为促进房地产业持续健康稳定发展做出指导。第六章结论，并检讨本文的不足及未全面分析的内容，提出亟待解决的一些具体问题，为后续讨论和研究做好铺垫。 本文集中分析房地产周期波动的理论意义在于：一方面，从产业角度提出房地产周期波动的基本理论，分析房地产周期波动的决定因素及传导机制，并深入探讨我过房地产周期波动的特征及其与宏观政策微观经济的相互关系；另一方面，根据影响房地产周期波动的因素提出应对周期波动房地产业的发展政策和调控政策。这些研究不但是对经济周期理论的创新，也是房地产周期波动理论的拓展，同时也为我国房地产业的持续、健康、稳定发展提供了理论指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fluctuation of the economy may have influence on the development of various of industries , making them fluctuating in the same way. It is proved by the history of the real estate industry that there is also cyclical fluctuation in the development of the real estate industry for it is affected by various factors such as economy, politics, population and so on.In historical way, it has been a long and hard way that the real estate shaping and developing in China. It has also been proved that as for the healthy and steady development of real estate industry in China, it is of more important practical significance to analyze the internal mechanism and the main external factors that influence the cycle of real estate industry and raise anti-cycle measures.The first chapter of this article penetrates on the background and meaning of the real estate research , puts forward the methods and viewpoints of this article. The second chapter concentrates on the basic theory of the periodic fluctuations of the real estate industry and analyses the character of each fluctuation step, providing a flat for the following study. The third chapter discusses about the practical example of some classic districts and makes a deep study on the macro and micro influence factors of Chinese real estate cycle development. The fourth part of the study builds a compositive model basing on the internal and outernal mechanism of the real estate. The fifth chapter puts forward the relating policies or strategies of both the government and the people who has invested in the real estate market following the research. The last part is a conclusion of the whole article, with some shortages of the study and some remnant questions.The significance of this study concentrating on the periodic fluctuations of the real estate industry consists of two main parts as follows: In one hand, it forms a basic theory of the periodic fluctuations of the real estate industry from the industrial structure way, analyse the influence factors and transfer systems and their relationship. In the other hand, it puts forward the relating policies or strategies of both the government and the people who has invested in the real estate market. Such research not only makes an innovation to the theory of the economical cycle, but also provides a guideline to the real estate industries for their healthy and steady development.更多还原