【作者】 雷智荣；

【导师】 李柯；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 内河运力发展在内河综合航运经济中占有重要的地位和作用。由于内河运力供给市场与需求市场信息不对称，再加上受到航道建设、港口布置、货物运量、航运管理体制等一系列因素的影响，致使我国内河航运市场存在运力结构不合理的现象。因此，结合我国内河航运市场的实际情况以及内河航运市场未来发展趋势，对内河运力需求进行预测，研究内河运力供给调控机制，使运力发展满足内河航运市场发展需要，具有十分重要的现实意义和理论意义。 本论文将经济预测、系统工程、控制理论等学科所取得的研究成果应用到内河运力的预测与调控研究中，本论文主要包括以下四个部分内容。 第一部分对我国内河运力的发展情况作了简要介绍，指出了我国内河运力发展中存在的主要问题，总结了内河船舶运输的优势，分析研究了影响我国内河运力发展的主要因素。 第二部分论述运力需求预测的相关知识，介绍了内河运力需求预测的数学模型，运用这些定量预测模型对某省内河运力需求进行实证研究，并结合该省内河船舶未来发展趋势，社会经济发展形势，该省内河基础设施的现状及未来规划情况以及该省货运、客运发展情况，对定量预测结果进行定性修正，为有关部门制订内河船舶发展规划提供参考依据。 第三部分对内河运力供给调控进行研究，分析研究运力调控机制，研究探讨内河运力供给调控基金，并从基金的设立与募集、基金的使用和基金的监管三个方面对运力调控基金进行探讨研究。 第四部分研究探讨了我国内河运力调控的思路，提出内河运力调控的基本原则与策略，指出现阶段我国内河运力调控的关键是优化运力结构，研究内河运力调控的相关措施，最后总结国外内河运力调控成功经验对我国现阶段运力调控的启示。 本文对内河运力需求预测与内河运力供给调控作初步探讨，总结指出我国内河运力发展中存在的问题，分析影响我国内河运力发展的因素，论述内河运力预测的思路和方法，探讨内河运力供给调控基金的建立，提出我国内河运力调控的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of transportation capacity plays an important role in economy of inland water transportation. As the reason of lacking of information and be affected by channels construction, port programming, goods quantity, inland water transportation system and so on, the inland water transportation market exists the unreasonable phenomenon of transportation capacity in our country .Therefore, based on actual problems and future trend, this thesis studies demand forecasting and supply adjusting on inland water transportation capacity, so as to meet the demand of the development in inland water transportation market. The study is crucial to the development of transportation market both in theory and realism.This thesis composed of four main parts that introduces the achievement of modern economical forecasting, system engineering and cybernetics, etc. into research on inland water transportation and carries out demand forecasting and supply adjusting on inland water transportation capacity.Firstly, this thesis outlines simply of inland water transportation capacity, points out the main problems existing in inland water transportation, states advantages of inland water transportation by comparative analyses on the features of different transportation modes, analyses and studies it’s main influenced factors.Secondly, it states the knowledge of demand forecasting on transportation capacity: introuduces mathematics modles and uses these modles to forecast inland water transportation capacity of one province, and combines with the ships future development trend, society economy development, the present station and future plan on basic establishment of inland water transportation, and the development of freight and passenger transport. In addition, adjusts the above forecast consequence, so as to gives suggest to relative departments when they make development plan on ship.Thirdly, it outlines research on supply adjusting of inland water transportaton, analyses and studies mechanism of transportaton supply. From the three parts: establishment and collection on fund, using on fund, supervising on fund to study更多还原