【作者】 张勇；

【导师】 张友棠；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 会计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 竞争激烈的市场经济在给企业带来机遇的同时，也使得企业理财面临更大的风险和危机。及早察觉财务危机的信号，判断企业的财务风险，使经营者能够在财务危机萌芽时采取有效措施，预防经营失败，是非常重要的。因此，对财务预警系统的研究，不但具有理论上的价值，对企业财务管理实践也具有指导作用。将财务指数运用于财务预警中，能较好地显示和反映企业所存在的财务风险，相信其在财务风险的判断与防范上能对我国企业起到一定启示作用。 在回顾企业财务预警研究历程的基础上，提出将财务指数运用于财务预警中的观点。将指数用于微观经济主体的财务预警中，其理论来源是周期波动理论和宏观经济预警中的景气理论。周期波动理论认为经济发展存在周期性，这种周期性表现为很多经济活动差不多同时扩张、继之以普遍的衰退、收缩与复苏，从而影响经济的发展；而景气理论则是在周期波动理论的基础上，构建景气指数来监测宏观经济受经济周期波动的影响。综合这两种理论，将指数预警的思想引入微观经济中，以期从另一个角度探寻企业财务预警的新方法。选择预警指标是建立财务指数预警模型的基础，从框架上和技术上选择了24个财务指标，构建财务指数的预警指标体系；探讨了财务指标预警临界值的确定方法和财务预警个体指数的测度方法；阐述了建立财务指数预警模型原理和基本思路。选择我国50家房地产行业的上市公司为样本，以2005年的财务报表为资料，运用SPSS软件对24个基础指标进行显著性检验，从中选择10个通过检验的财务指标，作为构建财务预警个体指数的关键预警指标：选择各个关键预警指标行业排序的第20位实际值为财务预警临界值，测度关键预警指标的财务预警个体指数；利用SPSS软件中的主成分分析功能，对财务预警个体指数进行分析，建立房地产行业财务指数预警模型，测度样本企业的财务预警综合指数。 从测度结果来看，有19家公司的财务预警综合指数为负数，其中5家ST公司和3家净利润为负数的公司，说明模型有较好的风险判断能力；针对具体情况，分析了另外11家公司的财务预警综合指数为负数的原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 Marketable economy of intense competition while to bring the opportunity to the enterprise, also causes the enterprise to face with a bigger risk and crisis. Realizing the signal of the financial crisis early, recognizing the financial risk of enterprise, it enables the operator take the effective action to prevent bankruptcy at the financial crisis which appears embryonic stage, it is very important. Therefore, researching on finance early-warning system, it has not only the theoretically value, also has the instructive function to financial control practice for enterprise. Utilizing the financial index in the financial early-warning, it can demonstrate and reflect the financial risk of enterprise very well. We can believe that it can play a certain role in the financial risk judgement and guard for enterprise.On the foundation of reviewing enterprise finance early-warning research, the thesis proposed that utilizes the financial index in the financial early-warning. Using index in the financial early-warning in the microcopic economy subject, the origin is in the cycle undulatory theory and booming theory in the macroscopic economy early-warning. The cycle undulatory theory tell us that there is certain periodicity in economical development. This kind of periodic performance almost simultaneously expands for the many economic activity, then universal declines, contracts and recovers, thus influend economy development. In the foundation of cycle undulatory theory, the booming theory founded the booming index, using it to monitor the influence of macroscopic economy by cyclical undulation. The thesis synthesizes these two viewpoints, intruduces the thought of index early-warning to microscopic economy, inquires about a new viewpoints of the enterprise finance early-warning from another angle.The choice of early-warning indicator is the foundation of establishing the financial index early-warning model. The thesis chosen 24 financial indicators to constructe the financial index early-warning indicators system. It discussed method of determination of the financial early-warning marginal value and measure of the financial early-warning individual index. It aslo laborated the modular concept and the basic mentality to establish the finance index early-warning model. The research of application is most important part of the thesis. The thesis chose fifty Real Estate companies as the sample, took the 2005 financial report as the material, carried on remarkable examination to twenty-four indicators using SPSS, chose ten key early-warning indicators to construct the financial indivadul index. The thesis chose arrangement the 20th figure as financial early-warning marginal value for each更多还原