【作者】 杨明；

【导师】 郭平；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 财政学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,综合国力明显增强、国际地位明显提高。财政为促进资源配置、调节经济发展做出了巨大的贡献,但同时也付出了一定的代价,财政困难与日俱增,财政赤字和国债规模不断加大,特别是处在现今的分税制财政体制下,部分地方政府负债累累、财政运行状况令人堪忧。政府已明确提出“要认真警惕和防范财政风险”的要求。但与实践的要求相比,地方政府财政风险的预测与防范制度框架建设现在还处于模糊状态。当前还没有建立起完全适应地方发展特征的测评与风险防范机制,特别是对于处于中部地区经济发展较为落后、财政困难比较突出的湖南省而言,研究测算与防范湖南省财政风险的空间是非常广阔的。首先,本文在对地方财政风险的特征与危害进行分析的基础上,通过对财政风险测评指标进行特征性修复,测算出湖南省政府财政风险值,得出当前湖南省财政风险整体处于一般风险区域并且靠近高风险区域的结论,财政集中率低、宏观税负低以及显性债务高是直接加重湖南财政风险的原因。接着,分别从地方财政因素与债务因素二个角度进行成因分析,具体从湖南省政府财权与事权的不统一、过度强调中央集权的分税制、预算管理弱化以及政府融资随意化等不合理机制中分析成因。最后,提出防范与化解湖南省财政风险的对策,认为通过合理界定政府事权、加强预算管理监督与财政支出监督、建立并规范政府举债制度以及构建财政风险应急反应机制是行之有效的防范与化解风险措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 We have got a magnitude achievement in our economic development since the reform and opening to the outside world, with the boosting up of overall national strength and the enhancing of international standing. In this process, our finance has made an great contribution to resource allocation and economic adjustment and got some cost as well, such as the increasing of financial embarrassment, financial deficit and the scale of national debt. Especially under the system of tax division between central and local governments, some local governments have got a great deal of debt and the financial state is so disamenity. Compared with the practice, our government has put forward to that we should keep our eye on the fiscal risk, but the construction of the mechanic framework to forecast and prevent the local government’s fiscal risk is still not in clarity. We haven’t set up the evaluation and avoiding system completely suited for local development, especially in Hunan province which is stated in midland with prominent financial embarrassment and fall behind other regions in economy. So there is a very spacious foreground in the research of calculating and avoiding Hunan’s fiscal risk.At first, based on the analysis of the characteristics and the hazards of local fiscal risks, we repair the evaluation of the fiscal risk indicators characteristically, and calculate the fiscal risk value for Hunan Province, and then we learn that the current overall fiscal risks in Hunan Province is in general risk region which is nearly close to the high-risk region, and we consider that the elementary of fiscal risks in Hunan exists in the process of obtaining tax revenue, fiscal expenditure supervision and the mechanism of government financing. Secondly, we analyze the cause of formation for the fiscal risk through two facts—the local fiscal factors and debt factors. We think that the reasons of expansion of the local financial risk include disunity between financial power and responsibility, system of tax division between central and local governments with excessive emphasis on centralization, the weakening budget management and the randomness of government financing. Finally, we propose that government should reasonably define the responsibility between all levels of governments, strengthen the supervision for budget and fiscal expenditure, and establish and standardize local government borrowing system and establish emergency response mechanism in order to prevent and resolve the local fiscal risk.更多还原