【作者】 王丽玲；

【导师】 张树深；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 环境工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 目前国际上较为流行、运用较为广泛的生态足迹理论，是从区域对自然资源的利用、对能源的消耗以及废弃物排放是否超过了区域生态环境所能承受的范围的角度，来研究区域的可持续发展状况。但是目前的生态足迹分析法是一种基于静态指标的分析法。在计算生态足迹时，它假定人口、技术、物质消费水平都是不变的，因此生态足迹指标无法反映未来的可持续趋势。基于此，本论文提出了动态生态足迹模型，并对其计算方法加以设计，以修正生态足迹计算方法静态性的缺陷。 本论文的研究内容主要包括以下几个部分： (1)介绍国内外关于生态足迹理论的提出过程、研究对象、理论基础、研究现状及实践进展；在总结现有生态足迹理论的基础上，确定本课题的研究意义。 (2)针对现有生态足迹理论指标静态性的缺陷，论文系统的建立了动态生态足迹模型，在建立动态生态足迹模型的过程中，引入了承载力、冲击力和反馈力的概念，并阐述了三者之间的关系以及具体的计算方法。同时体现了承载力、冲击力和反馈力在动态生态足迹模型中的重要作用。 (3)在系统的建立动态生态足迹模型的基础上，以大连金港区为例，将动态生态足迹模型应用到区域开发过程中。通过对金港区区域开发对生态足迹的影响预测分析，结果表明，随着金港区的进一步规划发展，生态足迹和生态承载力均有一定程度的增加，由于可利用土地面积的有限性和随着人们生活水平的提高人均消费量的增加，生态承载力的增加幅度小于生态足迹的增加幅度，最终导致生态赤字的增大。为降低生态赤字、使区域开发向着良性的方向发展，就必须增加社会反馈力或降低冲击力的影响。 本研究首次系统地建立了动态生态足迹模型，增强了生态足迹模型的预测性，定量分析、评价以及预测研究对象在开发过程中的可持续发展变化，为区域的发展规划及政策的制定提供有力的依据，预测结论及有关对策对区域规划编制部门和区域管理部门具有较强的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ecological footprint theory (EF theory) which is popular and abroad is applied to study the regional sustainable situation from the point of view as the using of natural resource, the consumption of energy and the emission of castoff. The ecological footprint theory can indicate the status of the ecological footprint and the ecological capacity.The ecological footprint analysis method is a method of static indicator at present. It assumes that population, technology and consumption is not changeless when the ecological footprint is calculated. Accordingly, the ecological footprint indicator can not reflect the trends of the future durative. So the thesis brings forward dynamic ecological footprint model, and designs its computer methods which can amend the static limitation.The thesis mainly contents:(1) Introduces the process and the background in which ecological footprint method were brought forward at home and abroad; Sums up the present research situations and practice progress; On the basis of the theories about ecological footprint method, ensures the significance of the thesis.(2) Owing to the static limitation of the traditional ecological footprint method above, we systematically develop a dynamic ecological footprint model. We integrated the social and economical impact, natural eco-environmental bio-capacity and scientific technological feedback capacity together to do the research more comprehensively. At the same time, it was necessary and important to carry out the correlation analysis between them.(3) On the basis of the dynamics ecological footprint model, Jingang Zone is taken as an example by adapting local productivity data. As Jingang Zone developed, the EF and EC (ecological capacity) will increase in some degree. The EF increases more rapidly than EC, because the area of Jingang Zone is limited and the consumption is increasing. As a result, the ecological deficit is increasing. In order to reduce the ecological deficit, the ecological capacity should be enhanced or the ecological footprint should be reduced.It’s the first time to bring forward the dynamics ecological footprint model. It enhances the forecast ability of the ecological footprint method. The dynamics model can analysis, estimate and forecast the regional sustainable development. All the result will redound to更多还原